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United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #2321
    Some parts of the US are already in Recession --

    The unemployment rate in Rhode Island to 7.5 percent
    http://www.boston.com/news/local/rh...7/18/unemployment_rate_in_ri_hits_75_percent/

    California's unemployment rate rises to 6.8 pct
    http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D91E0IO00.htm

    Ohio's unemployment rate climbs to 6.6%
    http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/07/14/daily32.html?ana=from_rss

    Tennessee unemployment rises to 6.5 percent in June
    http://www.volunteertv.com/news/headlines/25613369.html

    North Carolina unemployment hits 6 percent
    http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2008/07/14/daily46.html?ana=from_rss
     
    bogart, Jul 18, 2008 IP
  2. ferret77

    ferret77 Heretic

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    #2322
    Florida is #1 in job losses and people are now hiring attorneys to hold up the foreclosure process in order to live rent free for awhile
     
    ferret77, Jul 18, 2008 IP
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  3. korr

    korr Peon

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    #2323
    Imagine if we stopped bailing out the banks...who would we pay our mortgages to?

    What would we do with the ~12 hours a week we're working to pay off our debts to banks who can't pay their own debts? Or the ~12 hours a week we're working to pay off the debts (social security, medicare, war) of government? (national avgs)

    Maybe the economy wouldn't be in the toilet...maybe we'd see some innovation.
     
    korr, Jul 18, 2008 IP
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  4. debunked

    debunked Prominent Member

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    #2324
    Florida is liberal enough that the judges will side with those who aren't paying. They will live rent free for 2 years or something crazy.....
     
    debunked, Jul 18, 2008 IP
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  5. ferret77

    ferret77 Heretic

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    #2325
    actually it said in the paper they pretty much always lose in court, but the court system is so backlogged that it can take up to a year to get through the system
     
    ferret77, Jul 18, 2008 IP
  6. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #2326
    California unemployment rate hits 6.9% in June --- That sounds like a recession to me.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/local/l...caljobs19-2008jul19,0,2872277.story?track=rss

    Citigroup chairman Win Bischoff has warned that house prices in the US are likely to keep falling for another two years. Bischoff told the BBC in an interview that he expects it will take two years for the markets to stabilise. He also said he expected the credit crunch could continue through until 2009.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080719/bs_nm/citigroup_housing_dc;_ylt=AoNz44tDovm.Go4xbyCC.ZWyBhIF
     
    bogart, Jul 19, 2008 IP
  7. korr

    korr Peon

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    #2327
    We have a long way to go to hit the bottom. I'm seeing another six months of inflation that will do little to avert the current financials-based crisis and begin a consumer crisis. There's a series of failures cascading downward, and half of them seem to be self-inflicted in a vain attempt to re-shuffle the pain.

    The banks might think they'll be clear by 2009, but they're probably also not accounting for the increase of foreclosures thats almost assured by the current bailouts they're using for these rosy projections.
     
    korr, Jul 19, 2008 IP
  8. ferret77

    ferret77 Heretic

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    #2328
    ferret77, Jul 21, 2008 IP
  9. gauharjk

    gauharjk Notable Member

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    #2329
    Bloomberg (Erik Holm): "Record tornado damages, the weakening economy and a drop in premiums may reduce insurers' earnings by 30%, the steepest second-quarter decline since 2002 ... Losses from catastrophes, including the most tornadoes in the US since at least 1950, were about $5.5 billion. At the same time, investment returns and opportunities to sell residential and corporate coverage declined as the economy slowed and home sales dropped. 'We're going to see amazingly bad numbers from the property insurers in the second quarter,' said Meyer Shields, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus ... 'There are lots and lots of losses out there.'...

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JG22Dj02.html
     
    gauharjk, Jul 21, 2008 IP
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  10. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #2330
    Looks like Bank of America may not back Countrywide debt. You had to wonder why they went through with the deal, it is obvious they are trying to screw over a lot of the banks. It would force a mass marking to market of CDS which would be hard hits to banks and other financial institutions. Plus if any of them hold the debt, they are screwed that way as well.
     
    smatts9, Jul 21, 2008 IP
  11. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #2331
    Just as a purely selfish question - out of these three banks (Chase, Bank of the West, Bank of America) which is the most solvent and will be able to hold my money?
     
    Jackuul, Jul 21, 2008 IP
  12. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #2332
    You hear the sob stories about people loosing their homes. But not too many people discuss the fraud behind it. Where the loans were given to people that couldn't afford it. I would bet a lot of the loans were given with little or no down payment.

    The insurance industry has the money.

    But if we have a couple of bad hurricane seasons there could be some trouble. In 2004, Florida was hit with 3 hurricanes. 2005 there were there 3 more with 1 if Florida and 2 on the Gulf Coast including Katrina.

    As I understood it there was 38 billion in Countrywide debt.

    Looks like another mess.

    http://nashville.bizjournals.com/nashville/stories/2008/07/14/daily6.html
     
    bogart, Jul 21, 2008 IP
  13. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #2333
    You know, I can tell the economy is getting worse on a personal. Less people are hiring me to write content and such, and many prices for it seem to be dropping as folks can't seem to charge as much as they used to.
     
    Jackuul, Jul 21, 2008 IP
  14. LogicFlux

    LogicFlux Peon

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    #2334
    Anyone buying puts on the xlf today?
     
    LogicFlux, Jul 22, 2008 IP
  15. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #2335
    Options are a quick way for amatuer investors to lose their shirts in search of "beefed-up" gains.

    Just saying.

    And to your question, no. Have you seen the volume in the calls for August?
     
    smatts9, Jul 22, 2008 IP
  16. LogicFlux

    LogicFlux Peon

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    #2336
    Yeah, I think some people are calling a bottom for like the 75th time this year.
     
    LogicFlux, Jul 22, 2008 IP
  17. LinkSales

    LinkSales Active Member

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    #2337
    Options are a great way to control stock in this kind of market. With options, your downside is limited to the premium of the option. Currently $21 put options are selling for $.75 per, thats a reasonable premium when the share price is $20.98

    With options, the price could move to $25 and you'd only be out $.75 a share. With stock, you'd be out $4 per share. Options are perfect for volatile markets like this and I wouldn't carry a position any other way, especially in the finance industry.
     
    LinkSales, Jul 22, 2008 IP
  18. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #2338
    As long as you know the risk, fine. But I have seen a few people completely blow out their accounts because of trying to "beef" returns, they were also using margin which is also a lot of the times stupid.
     
    smatts9, Jul 22, 2008 IP
  19. LogicFlux

    LogicFlux Peon

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    #2339
    I'm not brave enough to buy any for real but I bought some with my virtual trading account. :D
    I do think the optimism about the financial sector is a bit early, though.
     
    LogicFlux, Jul 22, 2008 IP
  20. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #2340
    I foresee a calamity.
     
    Jackuul, Jul 22, 2008 IP
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