I don't expect a definite answer because asking this question is like asking "How long will human-kind last?" There are many Adsensexpert and Affiliatexpert on this forum. So I guess we should be able to draw some hints on this question. I my opinion, I think they will exist as long as Internet's life.
Like everyone else, I don't see adsense going away anytime soon, since Adwords is like 90% of their profit. Affiliate programs are also going to be around for a long time, IMO.
I think Adsense will be around a long time, but the real question is how long will it make significant profits for publishers. I HOPE I'm wrong, but with thousands of new blogs/web sites being created every day it seems that the market is getting over saturated... and I'm thinking eventually this could mean eventually we will get next to nothing in adsense revenue. Someone please tell me I'm wrong.
Well, that in theory won't be much of a probelm. One person's gain is another's loss in terms of traffic, so the extra competition should not make a huge difference.
Everything has a lifespan. While I don't foresee Adsense and CPC going away anytime soon, there will come a time when another ad model will replace it, as CPC has almost effectively replaced CPM in terms of earning potential, etc.
I think Adsense will last for a long time, maybe very long time. There are other options already, but still Google has the upper hand. They have some huge financial power and they'll make sure they'll use it. As for the affiliate projects, some will last I think. There are good ones and bad ones. eventualy the good ones will thrive
Affiliate programs have been around for over ten years, much longer than PPC programs, and will be around for as long as merchants see the benefits of having other web sites help them sell their products. Specific programs will come and go but the concept will be around a long time to come.
In conclusion, most people think adsense and affiliate programs will last for very very long time (precisely, not forever). But our payment (CPC&CPM) will definitely drop. And only big publishers (we could be one of big pubishers if our sites can produce high traffic) will survive in this game. Another point is that there will be a new advertising technique which will be more cost effective for adwords and sellers but less attractive for us (publishers). Any comments on this conclusion?
I doubt Adsense will last forever, at least not in its current format. Google will no doubt come up with some new idea at SOME point in the future as the internet evolves. It is also by no means certain that a "new Google" won't come along one day either. If for some reason G lost its #1 slot then things could certainly change. I think the "advertising" model will always be there but not necessarily as we know it today - in fact as I have said I doubt it. I launched my first site 9 years ago and everyone said banner adverts would drive the net and look how wrong they were - but at the end of the day Adsense is just a "clever" version of what they were doing 9 years ago anway.
whitespider, I think G is now going back to the old style (banner ads). Maybe I'm wrong. I guess the old banner ads didn't work because there were excessive animations which are quite annoying when you want to read the content.