United States Heading towards a Depression?

Of course at this point, Tina Fey likely could have done a better job than Barry/Biden. Would have been a whole lot nicer to look at too!

 

On the other hand, if you're the recipient of some of that "free money" that Barry Obama has been handing out, I bet he looks like a pretty awesome president to you!

 

It is interesting that the supporters of one of the most corrupt regimes in U.S. history (comparable to the third world countries) which actually bankrupted the economy didn't say the word while it was happening but now are complaining about government expenditure which is done in desperation to fix the mess that previous government has made in order to avoid total collapse.

 

You finally got something right, Obama has the most corrupt regime ever in the USA. Not only are his policies anti-American, the guys he hired are crooks, tax-evaders, etc...

It looks like gwirld is coming around to reality finally! Although, he did write that as if he was writing in the future...

 

Because if you'd actually do some research many of the biggest causes for the financial collapse were set in motion BEFORE Bush, so why would I want to blame him completely for it? And who's to say the people that are bitching NOW weren't bitching back then too?

 

What on earth is he talking about now?

Ah, that makes more sense. This is one of the first times I've ever heard Julian say something compelling and lucid.

 

With such a deep understanding, obviously nobody can blame you for being smart.

 

So... with the slide into the worst depression since the 1930's upon us... what are we going to do about it?

I'm not asking what the government is going to do about it. The answer to that question seems very clear: Make it worse.

I'm asking how each of us, individually, will respond to the changing financial environment.

How does the depression affect your investment choices, your business choices, your buying choices, or even your choice of place to live?

 

I personally try not to directly do business with companies that received handouts. I say directly because some of these entities own or are affiliated with other companies that I might not even know about. And that includes any car company that took a handout, declared bankruptcy, and now doesn't have to pay our money back (or most of it). I have also been trying to support my local small businesses more. I will go to a family owned restaurant before I consider any large chain. We small business have to help each other and stick together.

That's my contribution so far....

 

I think Firegirl has a good plan. Support small business first!

 

I agree with that. If something comes too easy, it can also go too easy. Businesses with little experience and being started overnight with government help don't make me feel comfortable. A business can have become big thru a loan or financial push from elsewhere, but there needs to be some positive trackrecord in the past, and many of the businesses getting handouts now have started failing and not stopped doing so.

Appears to me that the money is just given to whoever screams the loudest.

Sad.

 

4 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are in foreclosure, and 8 percent more are at least a month behind on payments — the highest levels since the Great Depression.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090716/ap_on_re_us/us_foreclosure_crisis_unemployment

 

anything can happen. It happened before, who says it cant happen again

 

Just wait until Peak Oil begins to rape what's left of the economy (I began to research this months ago - and I have come to the conclusion that we are about to get f--ked in the next 5-10 years... if that).

I've got my sleeping bag, tent, and filters on order - along with bulk supplies of toilet paper.

 

The stimulus money should be used to increase infrastructure as a base to build the economy on. During the Great Depression money was spent on projects like the George Washington Bridge and Lincoln Tunnel that we still use today and actually generate revenue for the taxpayers.

The issue is that the Obama Stimulus is being used for social programs and make work programs. The spending has zero longterm economic impact to justify trillions of debt that will need 50 to 100 years to pay off.

I would say that we will be in a 'see-saw' economy over the next 10 years. Similiar to what occured in the early 70s thru early 80s. The key is to ramp up fast when opportunity presents itself. Some of your vendors may be slow in paying in the down times. So I would try to pay cash to avoid cash flow problems.

Inflation is sure to be a problem and any strategy should take that into consideration.

People don't understand what is happening now because the government statistics are adjusted.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state unemployment programs, unadjusted, totaled 667,534 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 86,389 from the previous week.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20090817.htm

The US Deptparment of Labor is reporting adjusted claims at 150,000 less. That's a big difference.

 

I personally think we are in a brutal downward spiral. I can only hope that the administration efforts can continue in a way to lesson the pain and raise the bottom. I believe certain efforts have already done that. I think we were looking at a world wide financial melt down last Autumn and the bailout of financial institutions prevented that.

Meanwhile what will happen going forward. For those that like the idea of the govt doing nothing...it will be interesting to see what happens with CIT financial. If it goes into bankruptcy...which it looks like it will,....there will be serious ramifications with small businesses, especially retailers and various manufacturing elements. The significant role they play in the retailing industry, especially in factoring will seriously dampen the ability of manufacturers to retail being paid and the end result of retailers not having inventory to sell. Could be a big problem.

Some institutions are looking to step in...but this is going to be a serious hit...if they go into bankruptcy.

I had a meeting with a friend, former business partner in commercial real estate. His feeling going forward is that lending institutions facing an enormous slut of commercial loans up for refinancing are going to extend the loans. He thinks they don't have much choice.

Could be. He suspects a lot of existing commercial property is overmortgaged with values now below water. He roughly estimated that values on prime properties in the DC region having dropped about 25% off of peak.

I suppose the lending institutions can extend these loans...and put off problems..unless the institutions are under severe pressure. Then they will fight for every dollar....and there could be a lot of bankruptcies on the commercial side. Time will tell.

As for Will.Spencer, who so avidly supports conservative theory...and wants to know what "we" are going to do about it....

Will, per your address in this forum it looks like you moved to Singapore from Colorado. Is that what you are doing about it?

Here is what I'm doing (not much different than before the recession). I operate a bunch of small local businesses with partners. They are of several different types. Most of them are making money. They are all supported by strong financials. We are willing to wait out issues until we can make them work. They are all using private money. None of the ones I'm a partner in have outside or bank money.

We are going to keep running them. We do two things first. We make sure we are running okay with regard to any government regulations. We avoid govt. problems like the plague. We also meet payrolls without exception. That comes first. If the employees are getting paid we don't have businesses.

We operate a small group. In the last few years we have opened a couple of additional businesses including one in the midst of this recession and one just as the recession was officially starting (albeit they didn't announce the official start of the recession as Dec '07 until way after the fact).

Of the last 4 businesses we have opened we were too lax in getting them started and took losses for too long before we righted the businesses. We are being much more careful and hands on going forward. If we see opportunities we will open more...we will just be more careful and ensure that we won't let the types of things that went wrong before...occur again. (to the best of our abilities

We have not fired anyone. One business has actually added people as it is counter-cyclical and doing well. In the other businesses we are making less but cutting expenses to mitigate against lower revenues. We are working hard to make things work. We shop harder for everything we need to buy, we are adjusting prices to see what makes these businesses work better....we are simply working harder. This is no time to be lax.

As to buying American...buying from small businesses etc. I have tried to emphasize buying American for years (not to say I haven't purchased foreign owned cars). I'll probably definitely buy American cars in the future. Would I buy from GM? Sure--my tax dollars are into it. I want it to succeed. Americans work there. I want to keep Americans working. They buy from American suppliers. I want those suppliers to keep operating. All I'm looking for is an existing model with a track record for decent quality.

As to the rest of what I buy...I think I'll shop harder to buy American.

 

Much agreed.

 

Wow, thank you for this statistics. Could this mean that the Great Depression is not far from now?

 

I've been hearing that since the 1970's. Sure, it will happen some day, but it doesn't appear to be any day soon.

I hope you own some private land, because WTSHTF public land won't be safe -- and trespassing on private land will be absolutely suicidal.

I'd call that the optimistic view.

I think that a decade of stagflation is the most positive of the likely outcomes.

When government makes the risk for investing greater than the reward for investing, credit becomes very tight.

Over the next few years, the man with cash in his pocket is going to wield a lot of power.

Pain is necessary for learning. The government is preventing people and organizations from learning. This will have negative consequences far beyond the lifespan of any person reading this post.

I've never been far from being an "America - love it or leave it" type of guy.

I realized on the night of the election that America had crossed an important "event horizon" where we could not hope to spend our way to wealth. I am coming to accept that the path to American recovery will only be through blood and iron.

This is not a conclusion to be accepted lightly, so I have no objection to spending the next decade trying to convince myself that I am wrong. These things should not be hurried. 10% of the American population died in our last civil war, that is not something I would like to see repeated.

These type of thoughts are not safe to have in the United States at this time. I would hate to see my blood wasted before the conflict begins. Hell, maybe the shit won't hit the fan until after I die of natural causes. One can always hope.

I believe that it's already started. The media is propping up their President with a constant barrage of "at least he's doing something" reports. Unfortunately, activity does not equal progress. The house is on fire and the liberals are holding a sceance with Karl Marx on what to do about it.

No one in any position of significant power has even touched on the main issue: Government needs to quit destroying American productivity.

Right now the government is trying to "help" the cook by standing in the way of the oven.

 

Let's see what Obama has been spending money on

$2 Million for 2 POUND FROZEN HAM SLICED

http://www.recovery.gov/?q=content/...id=12-AG3J14120297196&mode=details&primeid=27

5.7 Million cheese processing

PROCESS CHEESE
http://www.recovery.gov/?q=content/...id=12-AGDPDVVDOC02502&mode=details&primeid=35

16.7 Million canned pork
http://www.recovery.gov/?q=content/...id=12-AG3J14120297195&mode=details&primeid=30

Here is another 2 Million for 2 more pounds of sliced ham
HAM, WATER ADDED, COOKED, FROZEN, SLICED, 2-LB
http://www.recovery.gov/?q=content/...id=12-AG3J14120297196&mode=details&primeid=27


Maybe you can call the abuse hotline http://www.recovery.gov/?q=content/agency-fraud-hotlines and tell us what they're saying.


If however you have a good explanation for this, feel free to tell us.

It doesn't make much sense to me. How about you?