6,000,000 U.S. jobs to be lost in 2009

The US is paying for having an increasingly unproductive population as most of Europe is. America is a dying superpower economically, this century will be dominated by the Chinese.

 

I was doing some research on how they come up with the unemployment numbers and I believe them to be way off. It seems they only count people who are unemployed and ACTIVELY looking for a job. The government doesn't count people who are jobless and have stopped searching for a job. A lot of people in the current job market cannot find a job and are simply giving up for now. It sounds like there are a lot of factors skewing the results that we don't even know about. So I wonder how many unemployed are not being counted?

 

The government in the UK is doing the same thing. The number of unemployed is far higher than the official figure.

 

I am sure this is the case...

And the US and UK are surely not alone in this. In Germany the government sent thousands into further education, removing them from unemployment statistics.

 

The government is doing the same in the US. My father in law has been working in the same auto factory for 20 years and now that he has been layed off, and his unemployment benefits have been extended once already, they want to send him to school for free with the condition that he enters a degree program that is considered "needed". I think it is a better use of funds then bailing out the auto companies themselves personally.

 

How well are they counting the millions of illegal aliens working in this country? How do they count people holding down more than one job? I work with several full time workers that go off and make money from their hobbies and sports after work.

The roads around southern California are still jammed with people heading off to work, entertainment venues are still busy, and I still hear "it will be 30 to 45 minutes until we can seat you" at an overpriced restaurant on a Tuesday night at 8:00. Times are tough.

 

A lot of the education is a waste of money. There is a whole industry of schools charging around $15,000 for 10 months of training. Perhaps 3 out of 30 actually get jobs that they were trained for.

The US needs more healthcare professionals, engineers, math and science teachers but people are coming out of high schools at a 9th grade level.

Bank lending is actually up $300 billion in 2008.

The shadow bank system and credit backed securities are way down. But that's where the mortgage bubble was financed. I'm seeing commercails now for FHA mortgages with 3% down. People don't learn.

 

The system can't stop with the debt. Why?

Because the entire financial system is built on creating as much debt as possible. Why?

It is the nature of our fiat, paper money system.

Once CEOs and brokers take the $100 million paycheck for granted, there is no turning back for the massive inflation that is coming our way because Wall Street and Washington DC can't survive without it.

Unfortunately, all of this was financed by China (cheap products), the MidEast (cheap oil), and Africa (cheap raw materials).

If one or all three decides they don't want any more US debt, the house of cards collapses. (it hasn't yet but summer 2008 was a glimpse)

 

DEFLATION is an urban myth. College tution, toll roads, medical costs are all rising in double digits.

Also the CPI numbers are fake. 15 years ago 'rent' was substitued for home prices to calculate the CPI. Housing accounts for 30% of the core CPI. So imagine what the inflation rate would be will 300% price run-ups in the bubble markets.

 

It is when you are talking about areas that depend heavily on government spending, such as education, health care, and government services.

That is why college tuition (education), toll roads (government spending), and medical costs (health care) will always increase in price. It is because the government is always printing more money and spending it in these areas (including the military/industrial complex).

I understand your point, but see my point this way.

There are several domestic, and one foreign market for paper dollars. And it explains why our perception of inflation may be different, depending on where we are spending our paper dollars.

There is...

• the consumer market (milk, cereal, OJ, rice, meat, potatos, etc.)
• the durables market (computers, cars, TVs, fridges, furniture)
• the luxury market (brand names, jewelry, luxury cars/homes, boats, etc.)

Now, the conumser market has seen REAL inflation for a long time. But, I went to the grocery store and OJ is cheaper now than it was in 2004. That is deflation.

In the durables market, computers are cheaper and better now than they were in 2004. More deflation.

Of course, there is no deflation in the luxury market. Why? It sucks up all those inflated dollars coming from the military/education/health care economies.

Thus, these inflated dollars don't hit computers and orange juice and tougher cuts of meat.

However, in the foreign market, if those inflated dollars hit things like oil, or cheap manufactured goods, or raw materials, the country is in a world of hurt.

So, I absolutely agree with you. It's just that the economy allows a division of dollars, allowing the markets to function.

Prices would deflate in the staples and basic home prices since demand would be reduced.

Inflation continues in the luxury, military, and government-dependent markets.

Of course, too much government spending (combined with tight credit) may overwhelm the consumer/durable markets leading to a hyperinflationary event (like Germany in the 1920s).

 

Orange juice really isn't a measure of consumer prices. The reason that orange juice was high in 2004 was that Florida was hit by three hurricanes that caused extensive damage.

Prices are coming down in housing not because of deflation. Prices are correcting to the historic mean of the relationship of income and rents. The collapse of the finacial bubble is causing investors to sell good assets to cover their losses. This is causing a collapse in commodity prices.

There is plenty of money out there. The problem is that the velocity of money has slowed.

Don't let the politicans fool you. Deflation is a scare tactic. Gold is $800+ and Siilver 10+. Do you believe that gold will hit $300?

 

We're agreeing, but just not about the definition of inflation and deflation.

I consider deflation/inflation a general price increase, not based on supply.

The supply of homes hasn't changed but prices have dropped sharply. I consider that deflation.

Likewise, the supply of athletes hasn't changed (over the past 4 decades), but contracts have risen sharply, I consider that inflation.

We see the same things and have reached the same conclusion. We are just defining our terms differently.

I don't consider paper dollars, money. Rather, it is a substitute for money.

Gold and silver are real money which is why their prices have continued rising in relation to substitute money (paper dollars).

 

Correction of deflation?

 

I meant to say...

deflation is a general decrease in the price level

and

inflation is a general increase in the price level

for a good or service.

 

Sure. That's the general definition.

But I don't get it? How do homes and oil increase 300% but when the prices correct, we have deflation.

 

Wow.. I am Graduating High school this spring and it sounds like I am going to have a shitty time trying to make it on my own.

-Chris

 

It's not all bad. The military still has problems recruiting and they pay well.

 

I call it inflation followed by deflation.

There was easy credit and loose credit terms. Then, there was tight credit and strict credit terms.

It is the central bankers playing with monetary policy in a way they never could if dollars were backed by gold or silver.

 

Haha NO I don't want to get shot at by from f'ing RagHead..

-Chris

 

The problem isn't your definitions or using the word deflation.

Even if we have a little deflation it's not the end of the world and a lot better than having high inflation. Once the economy picks up, there will be no need to worry about it.

Shoot back or better yet shoot first.

Like I said the economy isn't all that bad that the military is meeting its recruiting goals.