Stocks that will do well in another Great Depression

Buyers remorse and greed.

Housing has another 20%+ to fall and banks will take more loses.

It's hard to imagine that were are already in crisis and the recession hasn't even started yet.

 

Not really. Recession has followed market crashes and housing down turns almost as often as it has preceded it.

Either way, whoever is in office will have the benefit of claiming victory in saving the economy regardless of what they do in their first 6 months in office. This, like everything else is quite cyclical.

 

i wish i would've invested in the banking sector awhile back... hmmm, o well.

 

Pretty much anyone with a bank account did. And for those of us that did, we did not lose any money, but we sure lost out on what we WERE making. My MM was over 6% at one point... I was making more on my savings than I was paying in interest on my loans.

 

It almost appears that the market is the tail wagging the dog. The market drops and there are rumors or a bailout or interest rate cut, so, the market bounces back.

Bernake said today that "With the economy likely to be weak for several quarters and with some risk of a protracted slowdown, consideration of a fiscal package by the Congress at this juncture seems appropriate,"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081020/bs_afp/stocksus

Market is rising on expectation of another stimilius and interest rate cut.

My opinion is that there is too much money being thrown around without any real belt tightening going on.

The 73-75 recession was followed out of control inflation a few years later. Time to look at acquiring hard assets like real estate or gold.

 

Keep in mind that the poll numbers showing Obama ahead in the Presidential Race way into this too. Just like the numbers on Wall Street declined whenever Obama was ahead of Hillary, so to the same appears to be happening here.

Consumer confidence, more specifically the markets confidence is dependent upon a number of outside factors, like the election.

There has been a clear pattern of decline whenever Obama is either ahead or makes an announcement, and an opposite affect when he is not.

I agree on real estate. Just looked at a new 4000 sq ft home yesterday. Absolutely beautiful and priced about $95k under what the market will bear just to move it. Only thing I don't like is its sitting on 1/4 acre. Way too much house on such a small lot.

 

I think that the market is factoring in Obama+Democratic Congress(Schumer, Frank, Kerry, Dodd, Pelosi and Company The market could bottom at 5000. I beleive that 7700 is the trading range for 2008. But who knows.

Close to New York a 1/4 acre is a good sized lot. You're right that 1/4 acre is on the small side. It could make the house hard to sell to people that have the money. 1/4 acre doesn't give too much privacy.

 

The problem is, a 4000 sqft foot print on 12,000 sqft of land, does not leave much yard. Land is plentiful around here, but you have to move slightly out of of the city to find it. I found a great piece of property near me, still in town, but at just under 1 acre for $240,000 for undeveloped land, thats ridiculous to me. I have a hard enough time selling commercial real estate at $125k an acre as it is.

If there is a silver lining to the rescue plan, I had a large low interest loan approved yesterday, so obviously money is making its way to banks.

Hopefully the stock market continues its down ward spiral and shakes off all the bad debt and bad investors. This too continues to be great for energy. Gas at the BP in town is now $2.50/gal. Down $1.57/gal in the last month. That is insanely great. When I look at a $500/mo. gas bill going down to around $250/mo. potentially, thats a tremendous savings, and enough to solve just about any economic crisis assuming you are not vested in the stock market and did not take out a stupid loan.

I see gas well below $2.00/gal very soon. I kept saying oil would be below $90/barrel by January. I was way off on that guess. I see gas now in the buck a gallon or less by that time, assuming things continue as they have. That alone and in and of itself would be more than enough to combat any sort of US or global crisis, save for those countries screwing us with their control of oil prices.

Hell, OPEC has been trying desperatley to manipulate prices in recent weeks and every measure has failed. Ultimately the "economic crisis" hurts this nations the most. They are the ones that have been taking the wealth of the American people and then using that wealth to buy us up. Now that that wealth is no longer there, well... here we are.

If ever there was a positive in this, this surely is it.

The only down side I see now is a future with a completely leftist/communist government enslaving US workers and small businesses so they can continue to expand the great society. Its the last thing we need.

A good friend of mine (left and stoned most all the time) once drew up a diagram for me explaining quite simply. "If it ain't broke, don't fuck with it".

Its a philosophy to live by. Sometimes you need to leave things alone for a while. Walk away, step back and just let nature take its course.

The only thing I would change in our government/economy is the rampant overspending. Fix that, and everything else pretty much takes care of itself.

 

OPEC hasn't had any better success than the Fed trying to manipulate the housing and stock markets.

Real Estate will be cheaper in 2009.

 

Good news for those that want to buy. Hopefully fuel remains that way as well.

 

Gas will be cheap in 2009 and bottom in March.

Gas long term is going to go through the roof unless we start using aletrnative energy.

Pickens says that we should replace diesel with natural gas in trucks.

 

I'm all for the Pickens plan, unlike Obama and the rest of the SUV driving abusers out there. However, I think if we continue on a road to energy independence the price of fuel will continue falling. Law of Supply and Demand in affect.

 

The price of oil could skyrocket on the drop of a dime. The stock market was up 10% today. The same could happen with oil. Pickens plan is a great idea. But with cheaper gas people will not make the effort to change.

Matter of fact, George Bush increased the stock market 10% today.

 

If it could have, it would have by now. I think it will keep going down. Its governed by demand, that of which has shrunk some 5% overall in the US. It is also affected by those in the commodities market that don't seem to be playing with it much anymore.

ATM, its really hard to tell what is going one when you see:

11% stock market gain
2.5% increase in the new housing market
Gas prices at a 3 years low
Oil down more than 50% off its high
Another province in Iraqi control
Interest rates like to be cut again
Unemployment rate unchanged
Current Inflation Rate down
Final GDP numbers in the second quarter show a 2.8% rise

Not fantastic, but certainly no were near a depression.

 

GDP was -0.3% July-September period and is expected to fall 4.5% in the October-December quarter.

A depression is not a given. The US recovered from the 1929 Stick market collapse in 1930. But due to poor governmnet policy and action the US declined into a depression.

Banks are still not lending. Some banks are using the government bailout money for acquisitions which is not doing anything to alleviate the credit 'lock-up'.

 

As of this mornings report, correct. Which shows 1 quarter of negative GDP. Get two, then you have what the left has been wishing for.

We still could have one. What caused the depression ultimately was a tax increase on those making $100k and up. And $100k was a HELL OF A LOT MORE then, than it is now.

So essentially what we saw was the collapse of an economy by taxing those at the top. Of course those at the bottom got to see just how trickle down economics works.

Oh, I disagree. Banks are lending. I just got a low interest commercial loan approved 3 days ago. The bank I chose was one that did not get themselves into trouble to begin with. That said, they have both assets and cash and little if any bad loans.

The banks that people are having problem getting to lend money are the ones that were backed by Lehman and others that are now defunct.

I'm looking at building another home as well, and when I mentioned I'd like to sell my current one and use the capital from the equity in it to do so, the bank told me they'd lend me money to build a home, if I bought the land in cash. I'm not exploring that option and may end up just renting out my current home instead.

This way I end up in a low interest investment at a time when the price has come way down for land and new construction. Meanwhile I sit on a home with a lot of equity until the prices peak again and sell at a larger profit. Only down side is the capital gains, which if I sell the current house I can escape entirely by using it in the new home.

BTW, we are giving raises this year, and are hiring. I'm still trying to fill a lead programmer salaried position. If the jobless rate is so bleak, why am I having such a hard time filling positions? That I cannot figure out.

There is still money out there to borrow. You just have to find the right lender, and meeting a much more intelligent set of requirements.

 

Isn't it ironic then the presidential candidate everyone's clamoring for?

Looks like the people are willingly repeating the exact same historical mistake.

 

Nothing ironic. There's just a lot of stupid people in the US. There are a lot more ignorant people following the stupid people, and then there are more still misguided, misinformed, or ill informed people that follow them as well.

At the top of all of this are a bunch of emotion driven, agenda wielding, hateful people that are there to help explain to the stupid people why they can't make it without their help.

Watch "Idiocracy" if you want a good idea of the mentality level I am referring to with regard to the left. They'd be better off convincing most that they could talk to plants rather than telling people how they are going to solve problems.

 

100k isn't a lot of money at all especially after Federal, State, Social Security and local taxes are taken out.

Obama also wants to raise the self employment tax to cover 250k.

That's a good one about those at the bottom will get to see just how trickle down economics works.

Some banks are still lending if you have a good credit rating and collateral.

New construction loans are tough. The loans are paid in phases when a benchmark is hit. The loans usually carry higher interest. Once the home is finished you will be able to get a normal loan at a better rate.

Also watch out buying vacant land. If you don't build right away, there could be zoning hassles or the property may not perk.

The jobless isn't bleak at 6.1% which is more or less the historical average the the 1970s and 1980s.

Usually unemployment peaks in the two years following a recession. It's being forecast that unemployement will peal at 7.6%

There's still money to be made. The problem is that people don't want to work.

 

Ron Paul was right there in front of the american people. What a golden opportunity we had. Hopefully we wont let it slip by again in 2012 after 4 more years of either a democratic puppet or a republican neocon. If jesse ventura is running and i know his policys well enough i would vote for him .

Mia the left and the far right have stopped caring about the american people. Obama isnt a classical democrat and insane mccain isnt a classical republican. They are handpicked by the elite and i havent seen anything different in the last 25 years(it would be a longer time frame but im not that old.... yet lol).
We need change, but not the one that mccain or obama were referring to. We need the rich and powerful special interest groups and their media streams to stay out of politics . What kind of system we have that gives the greater advantage to the candidate who has the most endorsement money from big groups to win over the candidate that has the best policies?