Now more than ever i just need all the people who normally argue against me to tell me I am all wrong about the way i'm looking at this, that this prophecy shit and economic collapse and bread-lines and stocking up on food and all of this is just complete B.S. Am I really going crazy or is this all coming true? How will i know if i'm not living the life of someone else?
Its a figment of your imagination. Of course the economy is going downhill. What did I do? I stocked up on a ton of them 79 cent noodle things you get at Walmart. I also stocked up with a case of Cheez-Its, 2 cases of Water, 2 cases of Gatorade, and 2 boxes of cookies from Sam's Club actually that's what I live off of right now, school ate all my main funds.
You are not going crazy. IMHO what is happening is way beyond the books and way beyond what we had experienced so far. It would be human nature to feel uncertain over all these bailouts and doomsday predictions. I wouldn't say it is all B.S. just that it may be slightly overreacting. It is natural to expect crests and troughs in an economy. It is just heading for the unknown. But the economy has a way of healing itself despite human follies. I would expect a hard hitting recession but there is always light at the end of the tunnel.
It is all wrong. This too will pass. Things will be bad, not catastrophic, and yeah, the economy will take a hit - but we will survive. Must be getting early, clocks are running late. Paint by number morning sky, looks so phoney. Dawn is breaking everywhere, light a candle, curse the glare Draw the curtains I dont care, but its all right I will get by, I will get by, I will get by, I will survive. I see youve got your list out, say your piece and get out. Guess I get the gist of it, but its all right Oh well anyway, sorry that you feel that way. Every silver linings got a touch of grey I will get by, I will get by, I will get by, I will survive. Its a lesson to me, the ablers and the beggars and the thieves The abcs we all think of, try to win a little love. I know the rent is in arrears, the dog has not been fed in years Its even worse than it appears, but its all right Cow is giving kerosene, kid cant read at seventeen The words he knows are all obscene, but its all right I will get by, I will get by, I will get by, I will survive. Shoe is on the hand that fits, thats all there really is to it Whistle through your teeth and spit, but its all right Oh well a touch of grey, kinda suits you anyway, Thats all I had to say, but its all right I will get by, I will get by, I will get by, I will survive. Its a lesson to me, the devils and the east and the free The abcs we all must face, try to save a little grace. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NEE8oURdM0
I think your crazy if it helps, is there stress and fear in the economic system, Yes. But that's what happens when bubbles burst. After the internet bubble popped, google went public, it had a hard time selling its shares at over $100 that it had to cut the price to $80 and we know what happened for the next 5 years. Markets are driven by fear and greed, in the greed mode we lent money to people to buy homes who never should of been qualified for a loan, now in the fear mode banks won't even lead money to each other, and this phase shall also pass, it will take time.
There's going to be a bad recession - as bad as anything we have lived through since the end of the Second World War. Most alarmingly though is that there is more than a theoretical possibility of a depression. The Western economy is just so volatile at the moment. Every week just brings more negative economic news... The fallout from the credit crunch into the real economy is only just becoming apparent.
Every PhD economist or expert investor/trader I see or read interviewed are uncertain about what is going to happen, yet this forum is full of people who know without a shadow of a doubt. I find this really entertaining.
The economy is going to tighten up. Unemployment is going to rise. We are on the edge of a dollar collapse, but who knows how long we have until it happens. It's one of those things that will happen very fast once the first dominos start to fall. Personally, I think we have at least a year before things get really bad.
The US has plenty of food production. People need to learn how to cook to stretch out their food money. Even though a 20 lb bag of rice has double in price, a can buy a bag for $12.99-$13.99. Chuck steak is around $1.89 a 1lb. Even Wendy's has the double stack cheese burger for 99 cents.
The Western world has been through similar situations many times. The Great Depression of the 1930s wasn't the only major economic depression. Historically, major depressions have occurred about every 30 to 40 years. The depression in the 1840s drove Americans to the west in search of gold (the '49ers). There was another worldwide depression in the 1890s. Then again in the 1930s. We skipped the last one which numerous economists predicted would happen in 1979. Given as bad as the economy was in the 1970s (there is the bottom of that cycle again!), a lot of people agreed with the predictions. There were quite a few doom and gloom books written about it at that time, but we never slid into a formal depression. Guess what? We are approaching the bottom of the 30 year cycle once again. The country and the world will survive. Just tighten your belts an stop piling debt on your credit cards. Consumer credit card debt is the next piece of bad economic news that will soon hit. I somehow do not think that our politicians are going to be in a position to bail out consumers. Someone has to pay for things somewhere along the way, and that always eventually comes down to the taxpayers.
Actually the dollar is rising, it had its best week ever against the euro up 5.8% largely become the global economy is going down the tubes and everyone ones to be in the dollar.
Things are not great right now, but we're not anywhere close to a Great Depression yet. We are headed in that direction, but we still have the opportunity to right the wronged ship.
Dollar IS rising. Oil IS Failing. EURO is finally stabilizing at a realistic, non-inflated level. Energy is the key to our economic well being. Right now, 1/3 of our income goes to energy by way of fuel in our cars or heating our homes. Another 1/3 goes to the goods and services we buy again, by way of energy consumption. With 2/3 rd's of our income going to energy, its no wonder there is an economic issue. The subprime mortgage meltdown has nothing to do with that. Its affecting wall street and banks, not our pocketbooks. As wall street falls and banks fail, energy gets lower and lower in price. Think if if you no longer had to spend 2/3rds of you income on OIL... Don't you think everything else would take care of itself? The high price of energy is responsible, not subprime mortgages or bank fuck ups. The people suffering as a result of the mortgage mess need to take a good look at their own actions and start taking responsibility for themselves. End the bailout and gas will be under a buck a gallon in a few months, if not weeks! What would you do if you had 2/3rds of your income back?
The only issue I would disagree with you on is that home prices are not effecting pocketbooks. I think they are in two ways, one is psychological falling home prices makes people feel poor. Two a lot of people used the rising equity in their homes as ATM to buy extra goods, go on vacation and such.