United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. oregonthunder2

    oregonthunder2 Active Member

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    #2461
    I forgot to add this earlier.

    I think the economy started turning when the USA took silver out of coinage in 1965.

    I think this was a ploy, to move forward toward a cashless society and also because we were running out of silver in the reserves.

    A few years ago, we did finally run out. And the treasury has to buy all of their silver from outside sources in order to produce special collectible coins that you can order from the US Mint.

    The economy has been suffering ever since. Does not help with people like Bill Gates, pushing for Globalization.
     
    oregonthunder2, Aug 16, 2008 IP
  2. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #2462
    Bill Gates is a prick and asshole. just had to add that.
     
    ncz_nate, Aug 17, 2008 IP
  3. antimad

    antimad Peon

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    #2463
    :)
    yeah i agree that
     
    antimad, Aug 17, 2008 IP
  4. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #2464
    Wall Street pulls back as financials fall

    Emphasis mine.
     
    guerilla, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  5. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #2465
    Housing prices were pushed up by reckless lending and fraud. Prices have at least 30% more to go on the downside for the bubble markets. I don't believe that prices will slide to 1997 levels (the start of the bubble). At some point inflation will kick in and 'stabilize' prices due to increased rent and materials.

    At worst prices will retreat to 2001 levels.

    The fraud involved in the housing bubble was crazy. Here's a good article about appraisal fraud. A family that bought a home in 1999 and recently tried to sell it found that it was worth 20% less than the 1999 appraisal price.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080817/mortgage_mess_appraisers_one_deal_s_story.html

    The appraisers were in the pocket of the real estate agents and banks. They had to 'hit the number' to increase commisions all around.

    There has been little oversight of appaisers and laws that were created in response to the 1989 S&L crisis are being ignored by over 20 states.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080818/mortgage_mess_appraisers.html
     
    bogart, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  6. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #2466
    Great article from the NYT.

    Meet the Economist Who Thinks We're Doomed
    http://www.alternet.org/workplace/95375/meet_the_economist_who_thinks_we're_doomed/

    Idiots like Anirvan Banerji need mathematical models to explain what they cannot see with their own lying eyes. I swear, the Keynesians should be rounded up and left on a small island where they can try to create their perfect managed debt economy.
     
    guerilla, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  7. sachin410

    sachin410 Illustrious Member

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    #2467
    I think the 2007 figure was around $170 billion.

    $170 billion is around 1.5% of US GDP.

    It cannot be a major influence on final GDP figures.

    US has a "defence spending" to GDP ratio of around 5%.

    Even when there was no war, US was spending around 3%.

    2%-3% defence spending is pretty normal and many countries do it - including many EU countries.

    In fact, when US economy was going strong in the 1980s, the defence spending was more than 6% of the GDP.

    The current problems in US have less to do with the wars and much more to do with the how the entire US financial system has been built.

    The democrats put the cost of war till 2017 at $2.6 trillion - $4.5 trillion.

    This figure is definitely large, but it is just a tiny fraction compared to the other problems that are brewing in the US economy.

    Many believe that by around 2040, the total shortfalls in US social security and medicare programs would be around $70 trillion, maybe even more.

    stopping the wars will save a little money, but I don't think it is going to make any dramatic change to the overall US economy.

    Yes, but the same arguments will apply to data in all economies.

    There is no way anyone can measure the correct GDP of any country.

    All GDP calculations are purely based on sampling techniques.

    If a government would manipulate one growth figure, it will definitely influence all future data too.
     
    sachin410, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  8. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #2468
    I don't think you understood what I wrote. GDP is a BS figure. It's meaningless as any sort of positive or negative economic indicator. You could build 10 nukes, and GDP would go up. People would say the economy is growing. But are 10 nukes the same as 10 new anti-cancer drugs? 10 new Universities? Of course not. GDP is meaningless. People who cling to it have a very simplistic view of economics, most of it based on (now debunked) Keynesian fallacies.

    How all modern economies are built. On fractional reserve banking and debt. The Communist Manifesto model of having an inflationary central bank, and paper fiat money.

    That's not a belief. It is fact. The GAO and Congressional Budget Committee confirm it. We're broke. It's just a matter of time until we claim bankruptcy.

    Sorry, but if you believe that, then you don't understand the historical relation between war and inflationary debt spending. The times when government creates the most debt, and grows, is always during war time.
     
    guerilla, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  9. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #2469
    Freddie and Fannie are on the verge of collapse due to a wave of Alt-A defaults. Alt-A loans are better known as
    "liar loans" -- mortgages approved without requiring proof of the borrower's income or assets.

    Rumors are that Freddie and Fannie will either be nationalized or receive emergency loans from the Fed.

    Fannie Mae's declined 22 percent, or $1.76, to $6.15 on Monday, while shares of Freddie Mac fell 25 percent, or $1.46, to $4.39

    13 percent of borrowers with liar loans are at least two months behind on their payments.

    Losses Alt-A could total $100 billion, according to Moody's Economy.com in addition to $400 billion in expected subprime loans losses.
     
    bogart, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  10. GRIM

    GRIM Prominent Member

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    #2470
    I was reading that today. What a mess!
     
    GRIM, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  11. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #2471
    So how does the Washington come in and bail out people that lied on their mortgage application? :(
     
    bogart, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  12. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #2472
    Oh Bogart. You're just cattle. I'm just cattle. We're just animals to the people who make decisions.

    It doesn't matter if you are in the UK, India, Japan, Australia or Montana. Our masters have decided it's time for another wealth transfer, so we socialize their losses, and hand over our children's future. They aren't even going to raise taxes, they are just going to pay for it with inflation, and steal the purchasing power of your money while you sleep. It's much less pain that way. They wouldn't want to cause the cattle any more pain than necessary.
     
    guerilla, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  13. GRIM

    GRIM Prominent Member

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    #2473
    No clue...
    If anything those who 'lied' should be held accountable, those who can not pay their mortgage should do what people always had to do in the past, lose their house and move into an apartment or with family.
     
    GRIM, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  14. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #2474
    The fees on the liar loans average between 15k to 30k. A lot of people got rich quck.

    We're all fleas on the dog :D
     
    bogart, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  15. browntwn

    browntwn Illustrious Member

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    #2475
    Am I the only one who feels that every foreclosure is a small measure of justice to the banks and borrowers?

    I feel sympathy for people who lose their homes, I feel more sympathy for those who never bought because they knew they could not afford it and now watch those who mismanaged their money get bailed out.
     
    browntwn, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  16. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #2476
    People aren't really losing their homes. The banks own them.

    The smart people saw that prices were be driven up by reckless borrowers and lenders playing poker with other peoples money.
     
    bogart, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  17. browntwn

    browntwn Illustrious Member

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    #2477
    I meant people who lost possession of "their" homes.

    I know most people losing their homes never had any real ownership or equity.
     
    browntwn, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  18. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #2478
    Home equity loan defaults are the next crisis.

    A lot of people losing their homes put zero down to buy it.
     
    bogart, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  19. gauharjk

    gauharjk Notable Member

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    #2479
    What has Bill Gates ever done to you? :confused:
     
    gauharjk, Aug 18, 2008 IP
  20. Firegirl

    Firegirl Peon

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    #2480
    Yea, I was wondering about this as well. If anything, Americans should be modeling themselves after him. He was able to operate Microsoft completely debt free and has no personal debts at all.

    Maybe if Americans started to run their finances like Bill Gates does, we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place!
     
    Firegirl, Aug 19, 2008 IP
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