Alternative Energy Sources Debunked | There is "No Way Out"

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Planet is Energy-Deficient

The situation is far too complex to be solved via alternative energy "plug-and-play" as is commonly believed. First, as explained in great depth later on this page, we really don't have any ready-to-scale alternatives that share oil's energy density, energy portability and high energy return on energy invested (EROEI). [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The effects of this will be frightening. As Jan Lundberg, founder of the [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Lundberg Survey[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif], aka "the bible of the oil industry" recently pointed out:

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This planet is doomed to return to the medieval age. We are too late in taking action. Without cheap energy, the world economy would be devastated, and there is insufficient time, or resources, to retrofit our economy to the changed reality of alternative fuels.

http://radar.oreilly.com/archives/2008/05/fermi-paradox-and-end-of.html

 

We have the alternatives means available now to reduce energy consumption. Solar energy is available but cost prohibited to most. If there was more competition producing solar panels the cost would fall. If each building in the US would produce solar energy this would lower the power used from power plants by 30%.

Hybrid autos are available now. The technology used today should be the industry standard for all vehicles including semi's. Toyota will develop a plugin vehicle within 2-5 years to compete with GM's volt years scheduled for release 2010.

Local Governments can ease the restrictions on electric vehicles and allow them on more roads.

This statement is true if alternative are not found and advances made.

 

Scaremongering. Very disappointed.

 

Well... I hope all this just turns out to be untrue. But what if...... it doesn't?

There are many poor countries in the world, and they all are really feeling the pinch. Oil supply is not meeting demand. Oil is not a luxury... It is a necessity. What if there is not enough oil to meet demand? Oil prices would rise on the Spot Markets. Already, oil futures are booked for the next 5 weeks of oil supply. There are no reserve supplies.

The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November every year. What would happen if the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico shuts down for a few months?

What would happen in case of War with Iran? The demand for oil is inflexible, and supply is stretching the limits.

My intention is not scare-mongering. I am only trying to start a debate. What is the real situation on the ground? Oil at $143 a barrel was unimaginable a decade ago. What does future hold? Where is the cheap, dense energy going to come from?

In the 5000+ years of human existence on this planet, humans have had self-powered machines only in the last 150 years. Thank you Cheap Oil. But that era seems to be almost over. The Next 10 years could be the most difficult, when we try to migrate entire global economy to new, renewable energy resources.

 

What if the sun implodes? What if the US Navy launches a UAV and shoots a missle at your house because they though Al Queda agents were hiding out?

What if you spontaneously combust?

The world is full of what-ifs. That's no excuse to abandon reason for propaganda.

Is there any proof that the wells are running dry? Yes or no?

Prices go up, people drive less. They might start walking or taking the bus.

Based upon? Disruption or scarcity? Which is it? Where are the figures to back it up?

Oil is 143 due to monetary inflation, disruption and speculation. The primary reason, is monetary inflation. Unlike with computers, we can't find poor Asians to dig it out of the ground for us. Oil comes from relatively wealthy countries. And we can't hide our inflation much longer.

Right, or high oil prices may present market opportunities for R&D and investment into new technologies, and we barely miss a beat. Yes, 10 years from now we might use a fraction of what we use now for oil, but we might be moving a lot more, a lot faster, powered by something else.

 

Yes, there is propaganda al around. But you cannot wish away high oil prises as merely due to monetary inflation. There are fundamental demand-supply issues here.

Yes, the wells are running dry. Production is declining at the rate of 3% a year.

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Dr. Richard Duncan: [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge (PDF Format)[/FONT]

I agree with you... People will drive less and use public transportation more. But what would be the cumulative effect of this inflation on the economy? What about people who live in the SUburbs? The entire way of life would have to change.

I will have to leave the city, and go back to my village. Everything there is at a walking distance. Comfortable life and good quality, cheap farm produce. A complete natural way of life.

Iran war would cause disruption in Oil supply. Speculation would cause the price of oil to shoot to unprecedented levels. I am having a hard time filling by Motorbike tank (It gives a mileage of 75 Kilometers per liter of gas, i.e. 175 Miles per gallon). The fuel is expensive. And I fear it will be more expensive. The odds are against us.

There is not enough oil to be found. There is an urgent need for a revolutionary breakthrough in Battery Tech or something else as versatile as Crude Oil.

We are at another turning point in history. Anyone who can innovate and solve this energy crisis will become rich. There is opportunity to be found here. But the question is, if the production has really peaked, then the decline in production would be steep. and price rise would cripple the wheels of Global Economy.

P.S. Tell me where to invest.

 

You have made some interesting point that may happen. It is a good time to plan.

 

Yes friend, it is better to keep an eye on what the developments are on energy front, so that we may be better prepared if things go wrong.

 

My parents have retired and has started planting enough food to last over a year. They think that food and gas are going to become so expensive that food and gas will become scarce.

 

What? Stone age? Nay...

Check out "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler.

 

Oh really? I hope your fundamentals demand-supply can explain the price doubling in less than one year.

Production declining has nothing to do with the wells. It could be a cap, it could be disruption from the war. It could be declining capital goods in need of replacement. It still doesn't explain a doubling of the price in one year.

I don't buy peak oil. To believe in peak oil, you have to believe that the market will not work. That the natural forces of supply and demand, will magically stop intersecting to create a market price for a good.

You have a better chance of Jesus showing up to support Obama in the election.

Yes my friend, things will change. Everything always changes. Very little in this world is permanent. Man's greatest attribute is his ability to adapt and survive.

Which again, will be nature's way of telling everyone, "Don't fight wars with oil producing nations".

There is enough oil. There are massive untapped reserves yet. There is shale. Then of course, alternatives.

Understand, your base emotions, your lower or lizard brain is being played by this fear mongering. It's meant to make you nervous, excited and pliable politically. Then when a messiah politician comes along and denounces cars, or whatever, you'll fall in line because they are so charismatic, and they seem to have all of the answers.

Stand tall.

If you want to make money, the Chinese are going to have a fresh water shortage. Find out which companies are advanced in that field, and have entre to China. Anything associated with development in the Orient is going to be big over the next 30 years.

I'd stay out of the energy game. You don't want to compete directly with the FED's ability to print money out of thin air.

 

That is a depressing article.

More reason for more efforts at a great variety of alternative energy efforts and spreading the word about conservation alternatives.

I have faith or belief that the incredibly rapid rise of oil prices in the last few years will spur actions across the board for finding and exploiting energy alternatives more quickly.

btw, I don't buy into the monetary reasons behind the increase in oil prices going up so fast, so dramatically in the last few years.

Virtually all major economies have increased their monetary supplies similarly to the US over the last 5-10 years. The world is flush with more liquidity as a result. It might be devalued currencies but it is also devalued against one another.

It seems that many experts in the field are debating reasons why oil has skyrocketed so high over the last few years.

Demand and supply at the end user level is one reason. China and India have exploded in growth and demand for oil. Their increased demand outweighs any decreases in demand from developed nations.

Speculation must have an impact. Over the last few months some amazing increases in daily prices and/or weekly increases have to be a function of many different players interacting on the commodity markets.

At present there is no valid way to even monitor the oil commodity markets to even know with confidence what is occurring, who is buying, who is selling, who is placing what orders, etc.

As someone with experience in working markets, fast price rises always smell of some parties "overworking the markets" but one can't tell.

The unfortunate thing is that the incredibly fast rate at price rises has thrown the entire world into turmoil. It is absolutely impossible to operate businesses when a basic cost rises so fast, so unpredictably, and impacts operations so dramatically.

It will be a rocky ride I suspect for a while, though.

 

There's no point in posting this. We're not going to medieval age though. But all this alternative energy is crap.

Yeah, people curse me out for saying it. I have an electrical engineering degree and did my thesis on solar panels(which suck), but what do I know, right?

 

The stone age could very well happen again.

 

Sooner or later, world will know to benefit from sun .. fully.

 

Check out http://www.c-spanarchives.org/libra...product_video_info&products_id=206374-1&tID=5

Energy Innovation: What’s Here and What’s Coming

It is a speech by Richard K. Lester, MIT professor of nuclear science and engineering and director of the Industrial Performance Center, who spoke on 14 JUL 2008 at the annual meeting of the National Governors Association.

Lester is a co-author of recent MIT reports on the future of nuclear energy and coal energy, and he has published widely on the management and control of nuclear technology. He is currently leading the Energy Innovation Pathways Project, an interdisciplinary MIT assessment of the capabilities of the U.S. energy innovation system.

Here is an excerpt...

Really very interesting.

 

The US can ramp up the use of coal and nuclear energy. The US is the 'Saudi Arabia' of coal and has 500 years supply.

T-Boone Pinkens has a plan to use wind farms to generate electricity. Wind farms in the plain states can eaisly produce 20% of the US needs.

 

The scale is too large. You cannot easily scale wind farms.

There is a physical limit to how much coal can be mined. Remember, its not the size of the tank, but the size of the tap that matters more...

New Nuclear power plants have not been built in the US for the past 25 years. Even if one is started today, it would take upto 10 years for it to come online. Uranium 235 is also in short supply, and is getting really expensive and harder to get.

One important thing about wind power is that it is intermittent, and cannot be reliable. That is why, backup generators of upto 100% capacity have to be maintained in spare just in case.

Wind power is expensive. 1MW wind power plant can cost upward of $2 million, and it would run on 33% efficiency max. That means you need 3 turbines in place to generate 1MW power.

T-Boone Pickens is only looking to make some more money at the age of 80. Thats why he's asking for billions of dollars in subsidy for his mega-projects.

And, here is the transcript of Energy Innovation: What’s Here and What’s Coming

 

The US is in pretty good shape with electricity. We need to replace the natural gas and oil with wind and nuclear which we can do.

The problem is trucks and airplanes using diesel and jet fuel. There are already plants using nazi technology that can convert coal to jet fuel. Replacing trucks with freight trains is a good option. Even replacing airplanes with bullet trains is a good option.

Net Generation Shares by Energy Source:
Total (All Sectors), Year-to-Date through February, 2008



http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/epm_sum.html

 

Fuel/energy supply and costs are currently scary and complex issues. The US derives energy from gasolene, natural gas, coal, nuclear, bio sources, wind, etc.

Gasolene (oil) has taken on a scary aspect of its own in that prices have skyrocketed around the world. Nobody has an exact fix on why prices have skyrocketed, blaming it on, increasing demand (especially from China and India), the war in Iraq, speculation, etc. Total supply and demand keep increasing incrementally with demand increasing faster than supply.

Within the US oil (gasolene and jet fuel) is primarily used for transportation, and dramatically less so used for other sources.

Heating and electricity are primarily the recipients of other sources of energy, be they coal, natural gas, wind, nuclear etc.

Adding wind turbines and other sources of electricity production doesn't necessarily reduce gasolene demand. I suppose it would if automobiles converted fast and wholesale to hybrids or electric only cars. Meanwhile jet fuel exists and creates a large demand for oil, subject to those huge price increases.

For a deep look at energy elements that fuel the US I suggest http://www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickoil.html

Two alternatives for the transportation industry especially cars include electric and alcohol such as ethanol. With regard to ethanol its interesting to see how Brazil is progressing. Brazil has made ethanol an alternative to gasolene for years. It began to gain in popularity in the early part of this decade. At this point it appears to represent far more than 1/2 of all new cars sold in the Brazilian market. In Brazil's case ethanol is provided by cane sugar.

Of further interest to the American energy debate is that over several years Brazil has discovered potentially large and promising off-shore discoveries of oil that will require ocean drilling.

In late 2005 they announced a discovery estimated at about 700 million barrels. Last year and this year they have announced new discoveries estimated at the high end at up to 33 billion barrels of oil.

Meanwhile the original estimates for delivering oil from the 2005 discovery was not until 2011 and the estimates for delivering oil from these larger fields runs far further into the future.

Clearly the initial discovery and the subsequent huge discovery have had ZERO impact on reducing the price of gas at the pump let alone the price of oil in today's markets. I reference that, if only because allowing drilling offshore in America has recently entered the political arena as a "cure all" for the price of gas and current energy problems. The Brazilian examples debunk those political claims.

Meanwhile, another fascinating element of the Brazilian experience is the enormous growth of the ethanol market. What started as a drip in 2003 is currently represents the majority of new cars built within Brazil.

Per this article in Wikipedia light cars built in Brazil that utilize ethanol zoomed from less than 40,000 in 2003 (representing less than 4% of their market) to over 1.7 million in 2007 (representing over 70% of new light cars).

Clearly the introduction of ethanol availability by manufacturers and ethanol availability by distributors (gas stations) can proceed at a far faster pace than discovery and delivery of oil from off shore drilling.

Recently and currently the development of ethanol made by corn has become a controversial and disturbing issue. Food prices are increasing dramatically (in part because of the increases in the costs of delivery-> increases in the price of gasolene and diesel fuel) but probably more directly because of the shift in production of food commodities from other sources to corn for ethanol.

Regardless, were the US to look toward a combination of electric and biofuels as alternatives to gasolene, the Brazilian experience suggests that significant alternatives could be developed more rapidly to replace oil imports and have a dramatic impact upon both fuel availability for travel and costs.

The rapid changes in Brazil suggest that if unleashed alternatives to gasolene could be implemented far more rapidly than has occurred in the US to date. Interestingly among the international auto manufacturers building cars that can accomodate ethanol in Brazil are GM and Ford, with GM having first developed the ethanol using autos in 2003. All of the major auto manufacturers are producing these cars. It is a transferable skill that could be imported and widely spread within the US.

The US needs to relook at its belief in corn generated ethanol in that current policies could be impacting food prices. Regardless, strong orientation in these directions could create massive and relatively quick relief from oil dependency, that not only ties us to extraordinarily high price increases but additionally ties us to the volatile middle east and other unreliable nations.

I'd focus on getting clarity on the energy debates, try and detach from those political discussions that seem to be more political, or more oriented toward serving certain large industries and push to get the US oriented toward energy decisions that remove us from the problems connected with oil.