Let's have some fun guys! We'll play this game where everyone get's to guess the market's close, and whoever is most accurate gets socially accepted from everyone else who played, using the honor system of course. Now the latest you can bet on the day's close to be eligible for a prize is 2 hours before the market closes. You can change your bet as many times as you want as long as it remains the same for the last 2 hours. This is for the DOW only. I will start it off with this guess: 11,242 "Let's get it on, c'mon!" Edit: I changed the prize
I think the dow will loose 1000 points by the end of the year with resistance at 10,000. I don't believe that there will be a collapse but rather things will unwind for a couple years.
The way i see it, the global markets are going down for the most part of this year. Oil prices and other stuff is pulling everything down. My guess is 11,195
I was going to play, but you know the plunge protection team wasn't going to let the market collapse below 11k today.
Hang Seng Index currently down about 800 points. Asia's getting slammed, I'm gonna say tomorrow will be pretty disastrous. And i'll predict we go below 10,750.
Dows was down 56 and closed at 11,231 yesterday. The Financials have lost 1.3 trillion dollars since October of last year and there is still a lot more pain. But I beleive that the slide will be gradual until there's a trigger.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09157231983 I think there's gonna be huge opportunity to make money in 09 unless some hollywood disaster movie type shit happens in the meantime. After this shit bottoms out you'll probably be able to just pick some companies you like that were unfairly raped and then bullishly trade on trend lines. Alot of good companies have gotten hammered down by no fault of their own.
The financials and automotive are in real pain. If the economy tanks in 09 who knows what the market will do. It will be really had to maintain the current prices with the p/e ratios going higher.
My friend, the fundamentals of the economy are covered in toilet paper. The soup is so thick, I don't believe many people can truly ascertain who is and is not profitable or properly structured. That's the problem when you pile massive inflation on top of decades of regulation. Tomorrow, Congress could pass something that makes the unprofitable profitable, and likewise. It's totally irrational. The false paradigm that the market inevitably has to go up is what got us in trouble in the first place. Believe a bull market when you can see it. Don't worry, you'll still be able to make money. Everyone is a genius in a bull market.
emergin markets like China, Taiwan , india, are collapsing rather than Dow......i think Dow will cause these markets to collapse and it will itself be range bound with weakness inherent....Crude will also correct sharply after those fanatic bulls make ordinary traders believe this rally in crude will last ever,they end up lapping crude futures at 145 and operators will start dumping their holdings.....crude will fall very sharply and that will limit slide in global stocks......unless there is some other news from U.S. credit markets apart from housing collapse+mortgage mess like credit card defaults etc.....
We still haven't entered the insolvency phase of the financial crisis. Many mortgages that are behind now, wouldn't be forclosed until next year.
My fear is we're on a permanent downward spiral, I don't think we'll ever be at the same place again, something major would have to happen to change that. We're trending down while China is trending up...
Alot of people probably think that every time we go into a economic downturn. It happens. Bubbles get fueld by elation and the deflation of the bubbles are fueled by fear and hence panic. The market always comes back. And when it does I think any moron will be able to make money.