United States Heading towards a Depression?

Yeah, I'm not criticizing you. Just saying, I have been seeing this sh*t for a year and giving people what has been sound advice. I'm no super smart dude at this stuff, I've just been looking at business very differently in the last couple years since I began to understand a little about money and credit.

I was confused by this. I thought it was gone already. If it's available, and it's nicer than your current place, and with more upside, couldn't you sell your existing place at a loss, and still pick up this house for no net loss?

 

I know
I had no choice, I needed/wanted to get out of my old house so badly.

No it sold almost immediately, it however is back on the market at a cost well under what it sold at. Appears the people who bought it couldn't afford it

Yeah I could I guess, but houses just are not selling around here at all.

I think from now on I plan on paying cash for my houses if I can help it.

 

I almost had enough cash banked to buy a small condo when the market was inflated. Family member got sick, I kicked in heavy financially, now condos are cheap and I'm not liquid at all. Timing is everything...

 

Unfortunately its like my dad always said, "Even if you can predict the market, you can't time your life around it."

So count me in for buying at the top of the bubble. I went in knowing we'd lose equity almost immediately, but rent was still going up and the slum apartments I lived in during college was wasting our money left and right on everything but the leaking pipes and mold.

Waddya do? Bite the bullet - sure there's no "risk" in renting, but you're guaranteed that you can spend $1,000+ a month for the rest of your life, just to live in crap. At least after 15 years of $1,000 mortgage payments they're done - who cares if its worth half what you paid by then, right?

It hurts our credit liquidity for scooping up deals at the coming bottom (1-2 more years?), but we'll be mortgage-free by 35. Cyclically, there should be good growth opportunities at that time - and we'll be flush with cash and income. The worst case scenarios really just affect people who already have moderate capital built up inside America and if the worst came to pass ditching the house and treating those years as a rental anyway wouldn't be such a drastic loss.

 

how much do you think these South Beach Icon Condos will go for in a couple years





they are still trying to get >500k for them

 

Damn nice view!

 

The prices weren't sustainable. Prices were increasing almost 20% a year in the bubble markets. Here's a good flash map of housing price increases in 2004.

The Fed is inflating the economy so that the rest of the economy catches up. At some point home prices will reach an equilibrium with the the rest of the economy and stop falling. The cost of labor, materials, shipping and land are increasing. So we aren't going to see 1999 prices again. At worst prices will fall back to 2002 levels. Florida and S California are at 2005 levels. But most of the country has only declined to 2006 prices.

 

Great views. How many square feet?

 

[Chinese] Government to help real estate developers

Of course they can't let their economy completely fall apart before the Olympics. I see them taking quite the beating after the Olympics however. I believe we will continue to see these bullshit "rumors" and "promises" from it's government to hopefully keep their economy afloat. China seems to be a ticking time bomb.

SEC, FRB Sign Agreement to Enhance Collaboration, Coordination and Information Sharing

 

they are like 850 - 1400, the corner ones are pretty sweet , check out the views from a corner bed room

http://www.turismo-sobe.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/bedroom2.jpg

pushing a million though, there is a ton of buildings like that in Miami , interesting to see how far they fall

mainland Miami is less desirable then the Miami beach, where these are

not all swampland, mia

 

China is in trouble on the inflation front. The inflation is running 8-9%.I think that they will revalue the yuan. The yaun is now 6.8 to the dollar. At some point the prices in Walmart are going to surge.

The yuan has risen more than 5.5 percent against the U.S. dollar so far this year, in comparison with the 6.9-percent gain last year.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/07/content_8503542.htm

A million for a corner unit is a lot of cash. But paying with Euros it's really affordable for Europeans.

 

Doesn't China's economy rely on a crappy currency in order to keep exporting their crappy yet cheap products?

 

Everyone understands how Renminbi inflation occurs right?

Vendor C sells goods to WalMart from Shenzen. Goods leave on a boat, 6 weeks to L.A.

Vendor C is paid before shipment (Net 0) in US funds.

Vendor C deposits US funds in Chinese bank, exchanged for Renminbi. The Chinese government buys up the US currency, by just printing more Renminbi, using those greenbacks as reserve deposits.

 

Nice.
.................

 

At some point the Chinese will start putting their people to other work. There's not much gain shippiny boatloads of crappy goods for undervalued dollars.

 

That and a fresh supply of young, prepubescent cheap/disposable labor.

 

A lot of the Chinese industrial labor is in the 20~40 range. They have a farm visa program where people can come off of agricultural land in the North for a few years, work in the industrial zones, and then return to the north with new trades and skill sets.

Contrary to what you may believe, most Chinese labor for export, is not child labor.

 

Well, as soon as their own economy is ready, they will be able to shift from an export to a domestic production economy. They do have a billion customers right outside their factories...

 

That contrary must have ended in April...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/30/china1?gusrc=rss&feed=worldnews