Continued @ Link: http://ohashi.info/article/why-new-tlds-dont-change-thing Feel free to comment on article, here, PM, whatever. Let's hear it.
Wrong: big business will buy their own TLDs and use those. There is real cache in having something like: www.ceo.cocacola, or www.today.news, or www.newyork.directory. Sorry but that is the case.
Big Business? How many are really going to foot the six figure bill just to *apply* for a tld? Why would they spent hundreds of thousands on getting the infrastructure to brand a whole new TLD rather than take that money and brand what they already have more? Which will be more effective? Confusing users with new tlds of sending a constant signal? The big players already have what they need.
My predictions.... 1) large social networks (ie myspace,facebook) or other similar getting their own domain, and selling to a built-in user base. This could be a better business model than existing 'new' extensions (.pro, .name, .jobs...) 2) Turn-key registry services (the same way that LogicBoxes can set you up as a registrar). Pay them to get you approved and manage your registry. A good fit for Afilias (info registry) or even Verisign if they can get streamlined & responsive. 3) Godaddy going vertical in the market & buying a couple of high demand extensions - getting revenue from both registry and registrar fees (on .dot coms Godaddy makes only $1-2 /domain while Verisign makes $6.42)