It would still be the same ban as he is encouraging others to click his banner or button if he choose to change it.
They probably will NOT ban him but just warn him first! I know several people who have done similar things like this before, including forcing IE users to install firefox through adsense's referall button / link to view their site (explorerdestroyer.com ??). Google just told them to remove it
I'm wondering though if that specific Adsense tool is allowed to have text above it alluding to what it is? It obviously doesn't generate random ads- just the one referral tool. Am I missing something? I originally thought it was a standard Adsense unit, now not so sure.
OH YEAH- Forgot to mention one minor detail. I found the page by clicking on a text somewhere stating we could watch a popular new movie online by following that link. Obviously a bait and switch technique in itself. That page will not get you anywhere near the original anchor text.
I'm pretty sure it's a referral ad... and he only gets paid when the user installs firefox after clicking that button.