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United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #1541
    damn this thread's hot. hey since assets are gonna be the only thing worth anything soon, I suggest you all buy some farmland.

    Keep it our dirty little secret, can't have too many peeps investin. At least not until I get my share ;)
     
    ncz_nate, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  2. korr

    korr Peon

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    #1542
    And where's the money going to come from to pay for the rebate, the war, the entitlement programs, and the corruption of our fearless leaders? I guess we'll have to borrow it, but don't worry! Even if no one is willing to lend us money (and they're not), we will just print more!

    I saw two quarters of .6 growth while food & energy prices were going up 5-10% a month. If you believe the true annual inflation rate is less than 2.4% then I guess you're right - no GDP contraction. But, if you believe in 2.4% inflation, I have some snake oil for sale that you might be interested in.
     
    korr, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  3. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1543
    What do you mean where is it going to come from? What is it with the entitlement freaks? AH, it was OUR (those that pay taxes) money to begin with. It comes from those of us that work and pay taxes.

    THe problem with people like you is you think that the money the government uses is the governments. Many of us that pay taxes, OVERPAY and end up getting it back. That's not the governments money, and it certainly did not come from anywhere other than my wallet.

    Ignorance abounds at DP on Wednesdays... I need a drink.
    Let me post the definition in English this time:

    In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's real gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.
     
    Mia, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  4. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1544
    That's an Ad Hominem, and a straw man. You obviously don't recognize korr by his posts.

    Save up for a brain transplant.

    I'm going to rwn you on your previous posts. I need to eat first though.
     
    guerilla, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  5. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1545
    Not quite sure what "RWN" is....

    Probably the same thing as defining a recession as, two consecutive quarters of dismal growth...
    :rolleyes:
     
    Mia, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  6. korr

    korr Peon

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    #1546
    I love it when party loyalists accuse me of things so off-base and out of touch with my arguments because it fits their neat little world-view of red & blue.

    When the government spends our money, it does not matter if it is financed through taxes, debt, or money printed out of thin air (inflation tax.)

    In fact! It is probably worse to finance government waste through debt than it is to finance it through taxes. Debt & inflation are just as much government theft as taxes are, but they have the additional cost of interest rates attached.

    /irony

    Nice Wikipedia definition, let's pretend its this simple.

    There are two types of GDP: Nominal GDP and Real GDP

    The BLS - Bureau of Lies & Statistics (i mean Labor Statistics) says

    %change nominal GDP - %change CPI = %change real GDP (.6%)

    They say %change CPI was 1% so we can infer the nominal GDP growth was 1.6% and see what's going on.

    The nominal value of the U.S. economy grew about 3.2% in the last six months, and the MZM indicator of the money supply (most complete version, probably better than M3 anyway) shows that 15% monetary inflation has occurred in the same period. In real terms, if an individual's income and investments haven't changed in the last six months, they would be about 12% poorer.

    The job of a political economist is to make -12% look like +1.2%
     
    korr, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  7. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1547


    It really is that simple!
     
    Mia, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  8. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #1548
    smatts9, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  9. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1549
    Actually, I have little use for macroeconomics. I think it is a fallacious science.

    By a technical measure, or an anecdotal one?

    The numbers are cooked pal. Most of the best global investors regularly claim that government numbers are nearly useless and almost totally cooked. I've multiple times on this forum explained how GDP can be bolstered through inflation, which manifests itself in the corrective CPI measure used to determine REAL GDP. But since GDP is usually released quarterly, or even annually, and headline inflation doesn't immediately respond to injections of liquidity and hence is a lagging indicator ...

    I get your game now. As long as the NBER doesn't report consecutive periods of negative GDP growth, then you will claim that technically we are not in a recession, regardless of the symptoms. And technically you would be correct.

    But by any reasonable analysis, it's obvious that the GDP is cooked by deficit spending.

    So the question is, do you trust the integrity of the GDP results?

    I'll tell you the same thing I told another poster recently. I'm not here to win a popularity contest or to lead an intellectual revolution.

    I'd like to know how your tax rebates are NOT part of the manipulated money supply? Do you pay in Gold, and receive rebates in silver? Are your FRNs specially marked?

    Your own tax dollars given back to you, without a spending cut, is a deficit increase. Do you know how the government pays for the unfunded portions of a deficit budget?

    It's called the monetization of debt.

    As far as spending it on your house, that is a terrible idea. But to each his own.

    The government is so lucky to have simple minded people who believe things like this, nay, people who will argue positions like this.
     
    guerilla, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  10. alstar70

    alstar70 Peon

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    #1550
    Mia is missing the bigger picture and doesn't really understand that money is just paper - you can't eat it.

    At least Gold and silver both have uses in the production of goods - Gold is an excellent conductor used in the computer you are typing on and silver is even more useful - the industrial processes its used in is too many to mention here.

    The fact money has no intrinsic value doesn't automatically make it a bad thing - but ask the Germans in the 1920's-1930's what an unlimited supply of money does!

    Hell go to Zimbabwe now and find that their money devalues by the minute - that's hyper inflation for you.

    The world is flooded with U.S.D. - if all that currency comes flooding back to the U.S. you will find the cost of your deficit trading supported by paper.
     
    alstar70, Apr 30, 2008 IP
  11. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #1551
    Jobless claims surge
    The Labor Department reported Thursday that claims for unemployment benefits rose by 35,000 to 380,000.

    Economists expect the unemployment rate increased to 5.2 percent in April, from 5.1 percent in March. The economy is expected to lose 70,000 jobs, the fourth straight month of job losses.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080501/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/jobless_claims
     
    bogart, May 1, 2008 IP
  12. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #1552
    Please stop reporting doom and gloom you will give Mia a heart attack. Just report misleading, manipulated reports so someone here can get an erection.
     
    guru-seo, May 1, 2008 IP
  13. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #1553
    Since when did we need jobs to spend money?
     
    smatts9, May 1, 2008 IP
  14. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1554
    Why you continually deny reality is beyond me. Did you have a head injury at some point in your life? Prolonged drug use, birth defect? What?

    2 consecutive quarters (that's 2 in a row) of negative (that means a retraction, less than) growth = recession.

    It's just that simple.
     
    Mia, May 1, 2008 IP
  15. korr

    korr Peon

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    #1555
    So you really believe that the quarterly inflation rate was 1%?

    hahahahaha

    The government can't just run around spending these levels of money without creating a ton of inflation. You can see price problems everywhere, and this is worse in America than many places who are even experiencing the same thing.
     
    korr, May 1, 2008 IP
  16. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1556
    Ad Hominem attacks don't make your argument Mia.

    Ok, so you're clinging to the technical definition. And ignoring my assertion that the GDP is manipulated and false. Got it.

    A question for you then. I'm asserting that the GDP is manipulated. Are you disagreeing with my position?

    And could you explain how your money is not manipulated? How the rebate check is a tax refund that doesn't dilute the monetary supply? I'd like some clarification on that please.
     
    guerilla, May 1, 2008 IP
  17. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #1557
    People need to realize that the stupid $600 so called rebate is being borrowed from say the Chinese and when you pay interest on it, it will actually COST you up your nose!
     
    guru-seo, May 1, 2008 IP
  18. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1558
    Yet you have yet to prove that there is any manipulation.

    No, it's our money that we had withheld from or paychecks... US non Albanian US citizens that is.. ;)
     
    Mia, May 1, 2008 IP
  19. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1559
    Coming shortly.

    The government is broke (bankrupt actually). Where do they get the money from to give you your money back?

    Do they,

    1) Reduce spending so that your money is available as cash for refund?

    2) Borrow from foreigners?

    3) Print the money?

    What do you think Mia?
     
    guerilla, May 1, 2008 IP
  20. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #1560
    Issue debt-free notes?
     
    smatts9, May 1, 2008 IP
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