United States Heading towards a Depression?

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If it gets that bad Americans will turn to a dictatorship to get them out of it. There will then be WW3.

 

The people at home will be asked to sacrifice for the state and the military. You'll see black markets and civil unrest. Inevitably martial law as well.

The troops will be able to come home, but they might have to sell their weapons to do it, that is if they want to come home to a bad situation.

We're on a similar economic path to what the Soviets went through. Not exactly the same, but there is enough in common (empire wise) to make comparisons.

 

Did this thread suddenly turn into a outline for a sci-fi channel movie of the week script?

 

Solution to the huge trade deficit and weakening dollar - this is the problem here - not some perceived weakness in a stock market. The forex market dwarfs every other market in the world - the USD is the problem.

 

The US is in a recession. Under one rough rule, if the economy contracts for six straight months it is considered to be in a recession. That wasn't the case in the 2001 recession . The National Bureau of Economic Research determines when U.S. recessions begin and end taking into account income, employment and other barometers.

Higher unemployment and inflation as well as a wak economy is sure to trigger more bank failures similiar to Bear Stern.

 

In the 2001 recession there weren't 6 months of negative GDP. Considering the low consumer sentiment, rising inflation, unemployment and subprime crisis, the US economy is in worse shape than during the 2001 recession.

I expect a double dip recession -- A small recession now and a bigger one to follow.

 

Iran stops conducting oil transactions in U.S. dollars

 

I'm not too worried. I hear that they are taking rice.

 

What'd take, 2-3 years for us to invade Iraq after they changed to the euro for oil transactions?

 

GDP still showing positive growth... Dismal, but positive.

However, GDP grew slightly higher than anticipated by the EFMRDAG (Establishment For The Mentally Retarded Doom and Gloomers).

 

Mia, the big kids don't use GDP to measure anything meaningful, because...

it doesn't measure anything more than economic velocity. if the government buys $20 trillion in Sunni Militia loyalty with monetized debt, GDP would be off the charts.

That doesn't mean we were more productive, it just means we can generate debt at will, and don't go immediately bankrupt.

Just like we don't pick our noses for nutrition, we need to help you find a healthier intellectual diet.

 

Still denying reality I see...

Let me define it for you again.

In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's real gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.

It does not get much more simpler than that... I learned this in High School Econ back in the 80's.

 

I have about as much use for Macroeconomics as I do frozen elephant dung.

Oh, you learned this in high school? QUICK EVERYONE, PICK YOUR NOSES AND EAT IT! YUMMY AND FULL OF VITAMINS!

 

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + net exports

As you can see, GDP is easily manipulated. By throwing $1 Trillion more in the money supply, GDP would rise overnight. Its easy to send GDP upward when its calculated in dollars, not true wealth. Now you know why the FED eases rates and credit when recession is near, its to bump up the statistics and make everything look great to the average idiot.

 

SNORT COCAINE and give EVERYONE the FINGER!!!

 

Which kind of explains why you cannot figure out the difference between, NEGATIVE and POSITIVE.

You've mistaken a slow down for a recession. There is a definition for a recession. The definition is there for a reason. You've mistaken little growth or no growth for a decline in growth. There has not been a decline in growth.

It's slow, or flat, but certainly not in decline.

Yet another reason why no one here listens to you...

While your finger is up there, maybe you can poke your brain and get it working again.

 

No, the fed lowers rates to spur borrowing and spending. Rates are artificially manipulated all the time to 1) head off inflation and 2) slow or jump start economic growth.

Where did you come up with this 1 trillion figure anyway? If you are insinuating that the tax rebates are some how part of this manipulated money supply, you are on the wrong track. The rebates are our own tax dollars being given back to us so that we might decide how to spend them. Myself, I'm putting a new roof on my house.

Pumping more of our own money into the economy, not the government is not a manipulation.

Anyone see any negative GDP numbers out there? Anyone? Nope... Nada... Sorry to disappoint the doom and gloomers again... So sorry... NOT!!!