United States Heading towards a Depression?

If it was me, I apologize. Of course, that makes you smarter than the FED.

 

The problem with USA is there is 2 type of economy. Real economy where money is still instrument of exchange for real property and then there is a monopoly economy that we can also call Google money economy where money is nothing but a piece of paper.
The money supply in real economy is deflating because more and more players are differentiating between real assets and Google money. People are no longer accepting the $3 dollars bills with the word Google printed on it.

 

The money supply may be contracting, but not for long. Look at any of the past recessions on the chart, all were quickly aided (not really) by issuing more currency/credit.

I think we're about to snap out of the deflationary cycle when the economic stimulus, Fed loans, and other sources of new money start to hit the economy. Between those, theres plenty of new cash to show inflation is alive and well.

 

I don't buy into deflation. Oil is now $109 a barrel, health care, food and rent are increasing in price. The dollar is also hitting record lows and gold is sky high,

On paper there might be deflation of real estate based 'bubble' asssests. But that money was never there to begin with. That's why there is housing crask taking place.

 

And the problem with the Canadian economy is all the currency looks like Monopoly money.

 

The highlighted text. Probably the smartest thing said in this thread, or on DP EVER!

The truth is, not only was that money never there to begin with, the value was never there either. The inflation in our economy that occurred, already occurred. It was the continual over valuation of real estate. This was driven by an unending need to loan money backed by assets that "was never there to begin with".

So to now sit here and state that this is a depression or recession is such a load of horse shit it's completely laughable. It's a correction. If left alone, "that money that was never there to begin with", will once again, not be there. The problem is people see that "money that was never there to begin with" as a "loss".... If it "was never there to begin with", how is it a loss?

That's just it, it is not. Because "it was never there to begin with". Once people begin to realize that, we will be further ahead in the correction, and back on track for a sellers market again.

 

By that standard, 95% of the money supply "doesn't exist." Physical paper cash is a drop in the bucket and the rest of the monetary system is in bonds: car loan paper, mortgage paper, credit debt paper, muni- & corporate bonds, etc..etc.. They try to price in risk but its not always possible.

I don't think deflation is the end of the world, I think its the natural end to the gross inflation of the post-9-11 economy. Prices would naturally "correct" at the end of any boom so buyers can find the next entry point.

The problem is, Bernanke is so paranoid at the slightest hint of deflation that he's willing to hyper-inflate as a response. You don't have to convince me that deflation isn't a threat to the economy, you'll have to convince him - because he's already using my cash wealth, devaluing it, to fight off this specter of deflation.

 

It must be a desirable monopoly money since it has gained about 50% against the American pesos.

 

The next round of US currency will be colored.

http://www.portfolio.com/interactive-features/2008/02/New-Five?TID=st092007ab



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Meanwhile it still cost 3 times as much to buy American goods for Canadians... And shipping those goods up there? Even more.. Not sure what your point is, of course I never am.

 

Where did you hear that? There is so much rumors and nonsense in trailer parks, you shouldn't believe everything that you hear.

 

Hmmm, not a recession...

http://www.kansascity.com/business/story/565404.html

“A recession is possible,” Bernanke said. “We’re slightly growing at the moment, but we think there’s a chance that for the first half as a whole there might be a slight contraction.”​

“I think the professional forecasters have been a little slow to come to the recognition that we’re in a recession,” Martin Feldstein, president of the bureau and a member of the business cycle committee, told CNBC.​

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aclMlgBb3taQ&refer=home

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the current credit crisis is the worst in at least 50 years.

"The current credit crisis is the most wrenching in the last half century and possibly more,'' Greenspan told a conference in Tokyo today via satellite from Washington.​

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080303/buffett_economy.html

"I would say, by any commonsense definition, we are in a recession," (Warren) Buffett said on CNBC.

But Buffett said it's not clear how far the recession will go because that is difficult to predict.​

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And now, Mia

So to now sit here and state that this is a depression or recession is such a load of horse shit it's completely laughable. It's a correction.​

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Mia, if you ever write an autobiography, you should title it, "Who put these guys in charge anyway? The Jeremy K story".

 

If you say it enough, it must be so...

 

Whatever man. It's nearly impossible to discuss with someone who refuses to see the forest AND the trees.

 

Ah, hell.. Let me be more specific since you cannot see it.

"possible", not "in a"

"A little slow", ah, try not at all.. Just because CNBC keeps saying it, that must mean it is true.

"credit crisis" nothing about a recession...

"credit crisis" nothing about a recession...

but commonsense is not what defines recession.....

But hell, if you say it on CNBC enough... It must be true.

Hmm, Buffett cannot predict the length of this commonsense recession, but he has the commonsense to recognize that saying recession on CNBC = recession!

I'm in completely agreement with that statement, obviously.

Actually it won't be an auto, it will be non-fiction titled "Living Beyond Your Means - How 8 Years of Clinton Created Spoiled Irresponsible Brats"​

 

You are wasting your time and energy with this guy. He lives in lalaland. You couldn't get through to him even with a 2x4.

 

Mia just tried to debunk Martin Feldstein, the head of the NBER (which officially declares recessions) by using a typical reich wing anti-intellectual tactic, and attributing the quote to CNBC, not the expert.

@guru, you're right. At one point, I thought Mia was a decent enough guy that you could reason with, maybe not always agree with, but someone you could debate and learn from. My bad, I mistook a softer tone for an open mind.

 

Could not agree more. You guys can tell me that the sky is purple all day long. Just because you say it is does not mean it is.

My point, if you had been listening is that the "recession" phenom/buzz word has been primarily the result of the media saying that buzz word over and over, rather than the reality if a slow down or correction, which is likely a more accurate description.

Now, take the credit crunch, and housing market/sub prime mortgages, etc., and other catch phrases and start lobbing them all together and saying it over and over and over, eventually people start to believe there is a recession.

I've never discounted the reality that is the mess created by retards that lived beyond their means. What I am saying is that I feel it is wrong to label each of these key issues with the word recession, when BY DEFINITION, it is not.

I understand completely where you guys are coming from. I realize that you watch way too much CNN, CNBC, NBC, ABC, PMSNBC, etc... For once, take the time to look at the broader picture, open your mind up and examine sources other than media outlets and out of work fed chairmen.

I swear sometimes the doom and gloomers out there get so out of whack in their quest to be right about doom and gloom they throw all reason out the door, if for no other reason than to further the doom and gloom.

At some point it would be nice to see optimism, innovation, and sacrifice, e.g. the American Spirit of yesteryear that drove our economy in much worse times. We've got nothing but a bunch of whining sissies anymore when it comes to dealing with hard issues and facts.

"I've never seen a monument erected to a pessimist."
Will Harvey

And I doubt we ever will!

 

You must understand that it wasn't long ago that Mia was claiming Bush and his administration are geniuses and they are going to lead the USA to the golden age of economic development.

I am sure in Mia's mind the war is progressing fabulously and any day now USA will conquer the whole world, kill all the Muslims and destroy every last terrorist by super effective use of torture that this administration has invented.

 

Do you mean the way, you, Gtech, debunk and will at once joined the military and took part in the war that you were so proud of and so loudly were cheering for? oh wait, you didn't.