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Is Google Over? - (News 28. March)

Discussion in 'Google' started by saddiq123, Mar 28, 2008.

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  1. #1
    Is Google Over?

    By Rick Aristotle Munarriz March 28, 2008

    Shares of Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) fell yesterday on the heels of another comScore report that shows weakness in the number of clicks that Google ads are receiving. With several media outlets reporting that Google's February paid click volume rose a scant 3% over last February (an anemic spurt that becomes even more disheartening when you consider the extra day this past February), flattish growth at Google through the first two months does not bode well as we head into next month's first-quarter report.
    We don't know how much advertisers are paying for the average click, so the actual revenue being generated by Google could be more or less than it rang up a year ago. The comScore data also comes just from Google-owned domestic sites. It doesn't include the company's broad third-party reach through its AdSense program or its foothold in faster-growing international markets. Still, it's not a pretty number for the racehorse that was Google.
    It could be worse. At least Google's market share is growing, according to a report issued earlier this week by Nielsen Online. The same can't be said for domestic rivals Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO).
    Naturally, it could also be better.
    Google's sluggish performance is being attributed to several factors. The more common explanations are Google's move to crack down on both fraudulent and accidental clicks. Catching bogus clicks early and policing accordingly is good. Narrowing the clickable link window within ads to make sure mostly interested visitors go through is honorable. However, what if the problem is deeper than that? What if ad blindness is kicking in, with greater reluctance to click through on Google's paid search ads?
    We saw this happen with banner ads in the mid-90s. They were all the rage at first, until Web users began to disregard them. Google's paid search ads are superior, especially with the dot-com giant's ability to target ads relevant to both the content and user, but no one said the party would last forever.
    This explains why both Google and Ask.com parent IAC (Nasdaq: IACI) are now trading at just 18 and 11 times next year's profit targets, respectively. Smaller paid search players like MIVA (Nasdaq: MIVA), Local.com (Nasdaq: LOCM), and LookSmart (Nasdaq: LOOK) find their shares trading for pocket change around the $3 mark.
    This will make April one of the most important months in the history of online advertising, because if Google is vulnerable, one can only imagine the kind of headwinds that less relevant players are facing.
    I don't think the good times are over for Google, but I think it's time for the dot-com giant to batten down the hatches, keep its payroll in check, and drum up the next great innovation in interactive marketing.
    The clock is ticking, and we'd better hope it's an alarm clock instead of a time bomb.
     
    saddiq123, Mar 28, 2008 IP
  2. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #2
    No Google is not over. Just a slowdown, due to economy overall. Not to worry. Google is here to stay for a long time.
     
    guru-seo, Mar 28, 2008 IP
  3. zexy

    zexy Guest

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    #3
    It's not quite over. But they're not having a good time lately.
     
    zexy, Mar 28, 2008 IP
  4. HomeRun

    HomeRun Peon

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    #4
    my ad clicks dropped way too much and stats r acting up
     
    HomeRun, Mar 28, 2008 IP
  5. wokaka

    wokaka Peon

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    #5
    hmmm...is United States' era over yet? No although the economy is going down. You can give the similar answer to Google's situation.
     
    wokaka, Mar 28, 2008 IP
  6. enous

    enous Well-Known Member

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    #6
    Maybe just a down time,I think it will back.
     
    enous, Mar 28, 2008 IP
  7. angilina

    angilina Notable Member

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    #7
    I think google is not gonna over that easy :)
     
    angilina, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  8. MikePrice

    MikePrice Well-Known Member

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    #8
    That is only news, maybe there is politic in there.
     
    MikePrice, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  9. M.IMRAN

    M.IMRAN Well-Known Member

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    #9
    Google is Giant...........

    and they are not going over right now!
     
    M.IMRAN, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  10. ninjashoes

    ninjashoes Well-Known Member

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    #10
    hopefully things will pick up, I don't think the whole internet could become ad blind overnight, that makes no sense after how many years
     
    ninjashoes, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  11. Erind

    Erind Peon

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    #11
    same. CTR is way down and my earnings are about 2/3 of what I make. :(
     
    Erind, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  12. jhnrang

    jhnrang Notable Member

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    #12
    Was not ENRON a giant in the field of Power? Yet it was broken into pieces. Was not Ask.com giant- the ultimate in search world - before Google appeared?

    In the dynamic world of globalized business environment, nobody is secured.

    I remember - during big debated on Google's crack down on paid links and penalizing sites for that - I commented here on DP as well as Matt's blog that Google was committing big mistake.

    Like ev ery giant or dominant player, Google became too arrogant thinking itself GOD of the NET and thus subjugating other websites to submission through FORCE.:(

    Those who have keen interest on history, know what finally happens to these type of empires.

    True, Google's improved policing might have decreased fraudulent clicks, and thus reduced clicks.
    But fact remains, -- Google is worth $100 billion not because it generates those amount of revenues or profits. But because -- you and me have invested in Google.

    Now if Google angers webmasters ( who, though Matt Cutts might not accept as he answered me on his blog in April, 2007) and they switch to alternative income generating schemes other than AdSense- available in abundance on the NET, than I was right.

    IMO - Google has just killed the SWAN that lays GOLDEN EGGS (webmasters). Because without webmasters - Google is nobody. If it treats webmasters as its subjects, we have lots of other to fill in the place.

    It does not take even a million $$$ to start a Google (Larry & Sergei started Google with less than $7,50,000) and there are lot more talented people ready to take it on its head.

    Beware Google.
     
    jhnrang, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  13. astup1didiot

    astup1didiot Notable Member

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    #13
    I have to agree and disagree, I would never say "webmasters" are the golden egg, but rather the people who actually use Google are. This would mean the people who actually use it just to search the web. These are who click on these ads. In reality this is a temporary loss in monitary value, the changes to prevent click fraud will be realized by advertisers when their conversions\sales go up, and in return buy more advertising.
     
    astup1didiot, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  14. uniqueinvest

    uniqueinvest Active Member

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    #14
    Google is not going anywhere for a very, very longtime.
     
    uniqueinvest, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  15. jhnrang

    jhnrang Notable Member

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    #15


    Just wanted to point out that....

    "Why do people use Google search?"

    To find information/products -- isn't?

    And who offer those?

    You, me & others:)
     
    jhnrang, Mar 29, 2008 IP
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  16. Proxy Lists

    Proxy Lists Peon

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    #16
    Its a big G, its not that easy :)
     
    Proxy Lists, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  17. ninjashoes

    ninjashoes Well-Known Member

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    #17
    Theres just a bad ratio right now of publishers and advertisers, I am sure things will even out.
     
    ninjashoes, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  18. ShaneC

    ShaneC Peon

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    #18
    Google gets the majority of it's money from advertising. The US economy is hurting bad right now, because consumers are spending less, if consumers are spending less of course businesses are going to lose money. When businesses are losing money in a situation like this, one of the first things they will cut is advertising. That's why Google's stock is dropping.

    Changing the click area and penalizing link buyers protects the advertisers, without them there would be no money to go to webmasters. We can't have it all.
     
    ShaneC, Mar 29, 2008 IP
  19. astup1didiot

    astup1didiot Notable Member

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    #19
    Very true, but in a sense webmasters need Google just the same vise versa. Until another SE can take a major hold of the search shares we have no choice organic wise. +REP none the less :D
     
    astup1didiot, Mar 29, 2008 IP
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  20. zangief

    zangief Well-Known Member

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    #20
    Try to find the information by other search engines you'll feel the difference.
    When I use them I generally say they can not be that bad , a lot of people are working for them.
    But they are bad.


     
    zangief, Mar 29, 2008 IP
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