I don't know much about US election system, in fact i know little, but as far as i know, Obama is more likely to get elected than the other 2. So if he gets elected, will he keep his word about withdrawing troops? What is the most realastic scenario that will happen if he gets elected? I don't know if he'll keep his word, i'm assuming it'd have hurt him in the next election if he didn't, but if we assume he will, what exactly you think will happen? It's a very tough situation right now, or better say, a huge mess, to just withdraw. Second question; i recently read a report that, close to the general election, something like 9/11, bigger or smaller, will(be made sure to) occur so that McCain will get elected in all that chaos, it's too sophisticated for my knowledge on US politics to comment, but anyone here thinks this is possible or is it yet another conspiracy? Comments:-
Obama has a way of doing the unexpected in a expected manner. So don't count on him withdrawing the troops from iraq, if it's a sticky/troublesome situation. The more things change ...... I don't think another 9/11 is going to happen soon, unless the security is that bad. Terrorists seem to have been weakened somewhat and they are preoccupied in other places. p.s : As to the Conspiracy theory, aren't there easier ways to make mccain win than by causing a 9/11
I think the status quo would remain, he will not withdraw troops as promised in the beginning of his campaign. In fact as the campaign progresses, his initial stance on Iraq seemed to be softening, more of evading the direct question of when he will withdraw the troops.
Something very big is likely to happen before Bush leaves office to give the crazy neocon scumbags a valid reason (sic) to go and ruin another country (Iran.) There isn't anyone more dangerous than a man with nothing to lose.
I don't know how the guys called "establishment" work or whether if their style is doing the expected or not, but things like 9/11 just don't occur so often like twice in a decade, but i have seen an analysis which was stating that if it's Obama vs. McCain, Obama will win like.. by %15 or sth, so it should take a huge event to turn things the other way around, a lot more than just trash talking about the opponents past. It makes sense to my shallow knowledge on the issue, i just wonder what people who know more about these, foresee. Gotto second the last part, it's just i still think, however, US will not directly intervene Iran for a while longer, i don't see it serving of anyone's interest at the present. Even less likely under Obama's presidency.
Obama will start to draw down troops immediately. However, his notion of having them all out in 16 months is a joke. The US, regardless of who is President, will have some level of troops in Iraq for the entire duration of the next Presidency. It is highly unlikely that all US forces will be out of Iraq before the next Presidential election in 2012.
Don't kid yourself with anyone going into office. I think they will withdrawl troops but probably will not complete the process until the end of their first term. I think Obama has been clear about that, unlike Clinton's false promises.
If either of them is making false promises in this regard it is Obama, who has said it will be 16 months, but his own advisor's say that is a 'best estimate'. Clinton has said she will draw them down but has not stated an obviously false number like Obama. You are misrepresenting their positions.
Both Clinton and Obama said that they would only withdraw combat troops which still leaves like 70-80,000 troops in Iraq
Unless Bush starts another war, or there is another terror attack, nothing will save McCain. Not even running against Shillary. Make no mistake, Obama or Clinton will steamroll McCain in the general.