2008 Stock Market Predictions - Technology Companies Will Prosper?

We are on the "up and up" today unless you are an oil refiner, because they have been poleaxed. Shipping sector is getting beat down a bit as well, but not as bad as the refiners. Everything else, is on the "up and up".

I am still seeing this as a very weak rally because of weak volume. We need large volume to back up these large price moves, or we will be back down before you know it. If there is no large increase in volume over these next days while the market continues up I will be itching to start selling short.

 

Markets started off way down like 200 points and now have reversed on news from S&P saying that the end of the subprime write offs are apparently "in sight". I don't trust S&P at all. I take whatever they say with a grain of salt.

I am still standing by this. I think the market will continue upwards until the 12450-12550 zone. I am still on the "sidelines" for the most part except long gold, short the dollar. Once we get up into this range I will probably start shorting again.

 

I think the big investment comapnies are talking about the market and then quickly dumping the futures after profiting 200 points or so. For the small investor 200 points is nothing but with billions of dollars in and out of the market it's a nice profit.

 

Bear Stearns is getting absolutely demolished. Apparently according to this CPI "report" gasoline prices have actually fallen. What a joke, they'll do anything to keep inflation from rising those penny pinchers.

Update: Bear Stearns has taken number #1 on my list of worst investment banks bumping off Lehman Bros. (LEH) to number #2. I hope they burn in a ring of fire, but our socialist gov't will not allow such things to happen.

 

Bear Stearns CEO:

HAHahaha. Does this idiot seriously think we are that stupid? He must be smoking some high grade Wall Street crack to believe that shit he is spewing from his pie hole.

Bear Stearns Gets Emergency Funds From JPMorgan, Fed

 

How does the CPI "report" state gasoline prices have actually fallen?

Diesel is $4 and gasoline is $4 in California.

What's going to happen if the Gulf of Mexico has a strong hurricane season?

 

I don't know how the fuel prices dropped. The government doesn't feel like shelling out more money in Social Security checks, so they did what it took I'm guessing to make it look okay.

 

There going to have to raise min. wage soon again with gas prices :|

 

Bear Stearns reports on the 20th, too. There might be more shorting action there.



My prediction for 2008: Pain.

 

Tomorrow morning is going to be full of panic. There is so much panic now I can taste it.

With the FED cutting rates (on a Sunday night, who does that?) and 100 bps on the horizon, I have this gut feeling it'll be tomorrow, commodities will soar and the dollar will plummet. The Yen carry trades are unwinding which puts even more pressure on the dollar while making the Yen look God-like (FXY).

With foreign markets dropping hard tonight, ours will be hit hard tomorrow as well. I do not know how much a rate cut would affect the markets in this situation. . . I will be playing it by ear.

And if the shit really hits the fan and commodities, specifically oil and gold, start turning south we may be in a very large world of hurt. But that is pretty extreme, but who knows, as the Boy Scouts say, "Always be prepared".

 

Minimum wage is always a problem. I could spend hours going on about it.

Suffice it to say, we're going to need a lot more productivity, and that means people will have to work more than 40 hours a week. If I own a business, during a recession, I might be able to make it (and continue employing smatts9) if he will work 60 hours a week @ $10 than 40 hours a week @ $15. He might not like having to work those 60 hours, but he might like it better than starving or receiving welfare.

 

Productivity gains like that will work but many people need an attitude adjustment.