United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #821
    bogart, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  2. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #822
    Watch for the yen carry trade to unravel faster than a fat kid unraveling his fruit roll-up. This will essentially "kick" the dollar straight in the gonads.
     
    smatts9, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  3. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #823
    Don't Fear Sovereign Wealth Funds
    http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul441.html

    Before the Financial Services Committee, Joint Subcommittee Hearing, Hearing on HR 5512, March 5, 2008

    Excerpt


    ----

    The Real Story About the FED's $200 Billion Loan Facility. The Press Is Ignoring This.
    http://www.garynorth.com/public/3234.cfm

    FANTASTIC READ!

    Excerpt
     
    guerilla, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  4. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #824
    F*** Carlyle and F*** the Bushes.
     
    guerilla, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  5. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #825
    Gold just hit $1000 an ounce! Looks like the $200 billion dollar is only good for keeping Wall Street up North for 1 day! Retail sales drop 0.6% and the futures indicated a big fall again.
     
    wisdomtool, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  6. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #826
    Damn, I meant to buy some more gold yesterday! ARGH!
     
    guerilla, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  7. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #827
    I haven't seen times so bad :( . For me a depression is impossible, at least judging from history, but I am not so sure now. What is Bernanke doing? Does he know what he is doing? That chap's brilliant guy, I really hope he knows what we do not know and is doing the correct things.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  8. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #828
    Yen dipped below $100, watch out for the carry trade unravel.
     
    smatts9, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  9. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #829
    Probably not. They haven't been this bad in a long, long time.

    I never understand statements like this. Why would people think a depression is not possible? The circumstances leading up to this situation do not differ all that greatly from the Great Depression.

    What can Bernanke do? It's flawed thinking that man can control the economy indefinitely. Bernanke is doing all that he is equipped and authorized to do. Of course, he only has the powers of inflation and deflation to work with.

    Bernanke is no great savior, just as the Prophet Greenspan before him created this mess, but all along, people treated him like the second coming of Christ.

    Free markets friend. If you intervene, you create hazard. And our entire system is built on intervention.
     
    guerilla, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  10. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #830
    I agree with what you say thats why I am very curious, Bernanke is doing more harm than good, he should have let go and just let us have a recession rather than prolonging the pain and making the recession worse. Given his credentials I have doubts as to why he is doing this, he should be more intelligent than this or we are stupider than what we think we are.

    I am not treating him as a savior just hoping he would let go and do not intervene, his $200 billion just allow for 1 day of rises for Wall Street, look at the market now. Let the invisible hand take over. Or we really may have a depression at hand.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  11. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #831

    That map is so flawed it is not even funny.. That is the last thing I would use as an example of an economic indicator... Eeek...
     
    Mia, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  12. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #832
    Carlyle was heavily leveraged at something like 32x. There has got to be a lot of exposure to some investment banks and brokerage houses. The worst is probably at LEH and C.
     
    smatts9, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  13. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #833
    S&P says they see the "end in sight" as far as subprime write downs are concerned. I say S&P are idiots and when are they ever right about anything? Obviously they got it right with their criminal behavior in keeping AAA ratings on that toxic sewage.
     
    smatts9, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  14. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #834
    I posted a graph a while back (it was in an article) that showed that the greatest amount of reseting ARMs will occur (IIRC) in April or May.

    Still, the issue is no longer the mortgages, it's liquidity.

    Rising prices + credit lock down = crisis.
     
    guerilla, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  15. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #835
    It can only get worse. An 7.8% unemployemnt rate similiar to the '91 recession would trigger a subprime meltdown and a 10% unemployment rete and 20% interest like the '81 recession would be a stake through the heart of subprime.

    All the Fed is doing is delaying the inevitable.
     
    bogart, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  16. korr

    korr Peon

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    #836
    Unemployment rate, CPI - these numbers are and will always be under control because they are politically defined indicators. ;) If things get bad they can just mess with the definitions of the variables and everything will be better again! Err...sound better/look better on paper.
     
    korr, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  17. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #837
    http://www.shadowstats.com/

    You can literally spend hours tripping through that site reading the numbers (if you are so inclined)...
     
    guerilla, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  18. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #838
    Freddie Mac is saying that the 'housing crash' is only about 30% of the way there. Prices are falling to 2004 levels and I believe prices with drop to 2001 levels. The housing bubble started around 1998.

    Median home prices plunged in many of California's most populous counties in February, with Southern California leading the slide with an overall drop of 17.9 percent compared to a year earlier

    The median price in a six-county area of Southern California fell to $408,000 — the lowest level since October 2004, when it was $402,500

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080313/ap_on_bi_ge/california_homes_prices
     
    bogart, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  19. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #839
    I thought just earlier on they were predicting that the housing crisis will last for years? Now S&P is getting quite optimistic.....

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 13, 2008 IP
  20. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #840
    Even the American Realty Association is saying that they don't expect a recovery until the middle of 2009. I think prices will be in decline until at least 2010.

    All the subprime loans have not reset and the foreclosure wave has just started. With the inceased cost of living and a recession things can only get worse.
     
    bogart, Mar 13, 2008 IP
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