United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #721
    If we hit a depression? I don't know a couple years, it depends on how bad it gets. But I don't think we have a depression to worry about more like a recession. I am pretty sure the average recession length is somewhere between 10-18 months? I would put us in the middle of that time length, and push us to more time as Bernanke shaves off his beard . . . err the rates.

    But I don't consider myself an economist, at least an 'expert' one. :cool::cool:
     
    smatts9, Mar 4, 2008 IP
  2. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #722
    Haha, Bernanke's beard is so stylin'.
     
    ncz_nate, Mar 4, 2008 IP
  3. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #723
    Bernanke is trying to inflate the economy to solve the housing bubble and his getting stagflation. Core inflation is increasing and people are finding it harder to pay their bills. It's a viscious cycle that will go from bad to worse.
     
    bogart, Mar 4, 2008 IP
  4. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #724
    guerilla, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  5. Boogie Nights

    Boogie Nights Banned

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    #725
    Here's is what I am doing: stocking up on ammo, canned food, and bottled water. The shit is going to hit the fan and I am afraid that we may become a nation of cannibals when the trucks stop making regular deliveries...
     
    Boogie Nights, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  6. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #726
    bogart, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  7. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #727
    DJ looks to be up at the moment but it is difficult to say the raise is extremely small and can be erased anytime, looks like bad time is coming, the latest report, productivity drops

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  8. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #728
    Ambac Seeks $1.5 Billion in Stock, Equity Unit Sales

    $1.5 Billion? What will that do? Not much of anything. They'll dilute their already awful stock. But thank God this is over with, for now, because CNBC kept coming out with "Ambac Bailout" news every other day causing the markets to rally in the last hour of the day and subsequently angering me.

    Oil, gold, and natural gas are on a tear today, up 4.62%, 2.32%, and 4.60% respectively. Commodities are out of hand with all this speculation. Gold to $1000, Natural Gas to $10, and Oil to $110? After seeing oil crush right through the $100 line, I can see gold storming through it's $1000 line.
     
    smatts9, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  9. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #729
    How does Ambac have an AAA rating? Doesn't seem the industry has learned anything and are looking for government bailouts. The bond insurers have 2.4 trillion of bonds insured. All I see is more bad news and more inflation.
     
    bogart, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  10. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #730
    GE and Johnson & Johnson also too have AAA rating but they are highly established companies.
    Maybe after the bailout Ambac financial position is stable enough?
     
    wisdomtool, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  11. earlpearl

    earlpearl Well-Known Member

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    #731
    The difference between a depression and a recession:

    A recession = your colleagues are laid off from work
    A depression = you are laid off from work
     
    earlpearl, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  12. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #732
    After this current subprime mess and all the trading scandals no one in their right mind should trust the 'experts'

    We're in a recession right now :D
     
    bogart, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  13. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #733
    Heard of regression to the mean? The "experts" are currently regressing to their correct average :) . There is really no such things as experts in the economy, most based their theories on past data which isn't the correct way and besides economics involve the social aspect which is difficult to quantify.

    Bernanke hasn't pronounced the "R" word yet though.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  14. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #734
    ncz_nate, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  15. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #735
    The helicopter theory really does not stand anymore, with such increases in crude oil, aviation oil is too expensive :)
     
    wisdomtool, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  16. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #736
    Rating agencies are partaking in criminal activity. That is what I chalk it up to, Phizer was downgraded by them, and they were in much less crap.

    Added: Friday comes the monthly disappointment: NFP.
     
    smatts9, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  17. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #737
    Problem is Wall Street takes the rating like the Bible that's why they stay important. I can understand biotech companies downgrading though, they are high risk high gain companies much dependent on R& D which may or may not reward.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  18. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #738
    The problem would be the downgrade would cause gargantuan loses. So these rating agencies are fighting to keep these monlines AAA.
     
    smatts9, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  19. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #739
    It is weird that Thailand sovereign rating is A2 whereas some credit companies can be AAA, seemed out of proportion to me.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 5, 2008 IP
  20. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #740
    We will have to see what Bernanke does March 18. A 3/4 point drop in rates is expected. Will the madness stop?
     
    bogart, Mar 5, 2008 IP
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