United States Heading towards a Depression?

that too, and also the war on drugs

 

Why does it always have to be a war on something anyway?

The latest is the war on poverty.

Why can't it be... the liberation of prosperity.

Next it will be the war on carbon.

 

One good thing about the sub-prime melt down.. It means a lot of consolidation in the banking industry is coming!!!

The war on Carbon? It's already here man.. It's called get rid of your incandescent light bulb and install fluorescent. I did my whole house and office last year.... I seriously save between $10-$30/mo. and am releasing less carbon into the atmosphere as a result!

 

I am worried their won't be enough carbon dioxide left for all the trees.

 

Grab and ax...

"Well, then, damn it all! What more evidence do you need? The pooh-poohing alone is a court martial offense! "

Still looking for an actual source proving that GDP declined in two consecutive quarters..

Simply saying the government is lying is not going to cut it.

 

give it a couple quarters

 

That's what I'm thinking. There's been economic bad news but the economy has plenty of fat.

The Subprime bailout is pumping a lot of liquidity into the system and the proposed Bush/Ben Bernanke 150 billion stimilus plan will pump more cash into the system.

On the downside are increasing inflation, and, higher food and oil prices.

The Fed is expected to lower the Fed rate at the end of the month to 3.75% from the current 4.25%. That will put the FED rate .25% lower than the 4% Eurozone rate. Inflation was 3.1% in the Eurozone in 2007 and the ECB may tighten. In any case a weaker dollar is certain as the US inflation rate for December was 4.1%

Food prices are certain to keep increasing in double digits. This year’s world grain harvest fell short of consumption by 61 million tons, marking the sixth time in the last seven years that production has failed to satisfy demand. World carryover stocks have dropped to 57 days of consumption, the lowest level since the 56-day-low in 1972 that triggered a doubling of grain prices.

Of course lets not forget the subprime has not wound down yet. 1.5 million subprime loans are resetting in 2008 and $152 billion of other loans with adjustable rates are set to reset.

Sub-prime loans are not the only ones in trouble. Second mortgages, hybrid intermediate-term ARMS, and Pay Option ARM are beginning to feel pressure.

 

I think Romney was right, Michigan is the canary in the coal mine.

 

The auto union is more like the thylacine than a canary, mate.

Michigan's problem is that the auto industry is too big a part of its economy. It's been exacerbated over the decades by the unions, media bias against American products, and recently by a Democratic governor.

There are plenty of areas in America that are much more diverse than Michigan. Mit was playing to a crowd.

 

Inflation is expected to worsen in 2008 due to the continued decline in the dollar. The chinese yuan is estimated to rise nine percent in 2008 and broke the 7.30 yuan mark this month. The yuan is currently trading at 7.24.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080120/ts_afp/chinaeconomyforexmoney;_ylt=AmQB0m0qXqcwELvcnZ4tofms0NUE

 

The bubble started ever since they remove the us dollar to the gold peg. Since then it has been printing all the money that you want and spending like there's no tomorrow. Well, we should know in a month's time. The upcoming interest rate is the end of this month and we shall see whether any interest cut will have any effect. If then 90% recession is coming.

 

If not for the defense industry, Michigan would be much worse off.

tbarr60 is correct about the auto industry to a degree, but the biggest thing that has hurt automotive is NAFTA. No new plants are being constructed, and all of the heavy equipment and new investment is going either south to Tennessee or into Mexico. Mark my words, in 10 years, Michigan may still be the center of automotive in America, but Mexico will be the largest producer of vehicles in North America.

 

Honda is doing well with US car production. 1 million cars were made in the US during 2007 with production in Indiana, Ohio and Alabama.

 

GDP data doesn't matter. I just gave an answer to that in the last couple pages but since you won't read what you cant refute without blind faith, I can understand that you would completely neglect it.

Here it is again:

Oh and here you go, the FED adds more money to the system to keep GDP (in dollars) from dropping: http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/04/news/economy/fed_auctions.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008010413

There's $60Billion being pumped in from protecting a crisis. As long as the statistic stays positive, the government doesn't care.

 

I see increased inflation that will cause the FED to tighten after the election. Inflation has hit 4.1 % and the chinese plan to let the yuan rise 9%. Oil is breaking $100. Food prices are going up and there is a worldwide grain shortages.

large eggs have increaed from $1 per dozen to about $2 per dozen for the cheapest brands

a gallon of milk has increased for $3 to $4 a gallon

March wheat is $9.17 a bushel and grain prices may rise another 40%

http://www.dddnews.com/story/1304140.html

 

It will be rough. I used the price for a gallon of milk as a gauge to prices going up, thats always a good indicator at the consumer level at least that things are getting expensive.

 

Yeah but a 33% rise in the price of milk is offset by the 33% wage increase everyone in America got... Or so some would argue...

 

that 33% increase has spread on all kinds of consumer goods and services, yet wages/salaries have not budget in decades. Ask everyone you know and 9 out of 10 will tell you that they are hurting.

 

That C in the GDP equation equals 70% of the GDP if that declines there really isn't any amount that government can spend that will support the economy. It isn’t as easy to manipulate the numbers as you think

 

Actually wages have increase 25% in the last 10 years.

http://billinman.wordpress.com/2007/03/22/the-average-us-hourly-wage-has-increased-25-since-1997/