Predictions: Mitt Romney- 25% Mike Huckabee- 23% Ron Paul- 18% John McCain-13% --- If the above happens that would have to be counted as a huge moral victory for Ron Paul and his supporters. It would mean a lot of TV attention (they'd have to pay attention to him with a strong 3rd place finish in Iowa.) It would be huge. I suppose I'm hoping for even more but I'm an optimist (at least at the moment) --- I suppose it would be possible to see how much of this poll skew effect is actually happening if one can find out how much of Ron Paul's support are the type of people who would be included in such polls. I really like to think that group ('04 W voters) only makes up 1/3 or even 1/4 of his support. If I am right then you could literally triple and quadruple his poll results to get what kind of support he actually has. Of course some of that support will be unable to vote in closed primary states if they are Dems that havent switched or independent/new voters that havent registered as Republicans in time. This is why he probably has his best shot in open primaries... I myself am such a Democrat. I will be unable to vote for Ron Paul in the primary because New York has strict party affiliation change rules that the deadline was a few months back before I began to support Paul.
The trouble is I think she will. You need to start getting behind Ron Paul d16man, even if it means leaving the Crazy Gang and thus preventing yourself from getting any more fake green rep. You still have time to support a man that will save your country.
there's your problem! Shrillary is now being predicted third place...and no thanks...I'm not going to "get behind" RP...edit: nevermind, I don't want to get kicked off DP... BTW, I notice you have more rep now...is your (literally) crazy gang giving you more these days?
The final Zogby #s Huckabee 31 Romney 25 Thompson 11 McCain 10 Paul 10 Giuliani 6 I think that's the first time Paul has hit 10 in that poll so it's great to see that momentum growing even within that poll demo that I don't think reaches much of his support. Considering this poll it's hard to see him not finishing in at least 3rd because it seems clear that non-poll factors are heavily in his favor. At the same time reaching 1st or 2nd looks tough because Huckabee/Romney have pulled away a bit and Iowa is not an open primary so he won't pull as many Independent and Democrats as he will in NH.
My predictions: Huckabee 29 Romney 24 McCain 14 Giuliani 11 Thompson 8 Paul 6 Hunter 2 I also predict a mass meltdown of conspiracy theories (after all, look at the base!) when RP's national support numbers are reflected in the Iowa Caucus. Waiting with eager anticipation!
I predict Paul will finish a strong 4th, displacing 2 top tier candidates, or 3rd, displacing three of them. There is a possibility of finishing 2nd, if Huckabee's organizational woes come to fruition as is being predicted by several insiders. Romney's campaign in Iowa is a machine. He'll probably grab 1st place.
It would be truly unbelievable if Paul got just 6% in Iowa considering that he is polling at 10% with Zogby and that everyone concedes that the polls only include a small portion of his support.
If Paul got 6% I would be shocked it's that low, I however wont change my candidate just because he's polling low. Gotta stand up for what you believe, not sell out IMHO.. BTW if he finishes higher than listed or 6%, wouldn't that blow those anti RP peoples crap right the fuxx out of the water?
Poll support is one thing. The main thing, is to turn out voters. You have to get your voters to the polls. This is where I think Huckabee's weakness is, and Romney/Paul's strength lies. Organizational strength. But the most important thing is, for Paul to beat McCain and Giuliani to setup an upset possibility in New Hampshire.
i would think Huckabee would have the turnout advantage over Romney because he has grassroots support right? romney supporters are likely to be "good family values republicans who like to watch football games and talk about sean hannity and just vote in the general election because i'm a republican and that's what i do" kind of voters.. idk that's just me.
Hallelujah brother. You got stand for what you believe in, whether it is popular or not. Nah. They said he would be out by now. Quitting before the primaries. They said he would never poll more than 1 or 2%. They, like the people who drafted the Iraq foreign policy, have been wrong all along. What makes them think they will be right now?