Recession?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by Fewski, Nov 21, 2007.

  1. #1
    Interested in hearing everyone's opinion on the United States economy stance. Are we in a recession? Heading into one? Or do you think we will not have anything to do with a recession for years?

    WHY?
     
    Fewski, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  2. Rebecca

    Rebecca Prominent Member

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    #2
    You should make a poll:) My opinion is that we are going into a recession. Not really based on any facts or statistics, but I just feel it.
     
    Rebecca, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  3. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #3
    We'll head into one shortly at the pace we're going.
     
    ncz_nate, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  4. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #4
    We are in a recession right now, but you know how it is, they don't want you to panic so they still pretend that we are not in one. Watch 2008 it will be bad.
     
    guru-seo, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  5. tesla

    tesla Notable Member

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    #5
    Yes. Middle Class, Working Class, and Poor Americans have been feeling it for quite some time. Many so called "rich" or high income Americans don't realize this yet....but they will soon.

    Actually, we're headed towards a depression, which is defined as a long term recession. If the dollar continues to fall, you will first see Chronic inflation, and if it keeps falling, we will go into what is called Hyperinflation, something this country hasn't experienced since the Revolutionary War. I hope we don't go there.

    I could make the response to this question fairly long, but it has been a long day, week, and month. To make a long story short, the U.S. government doesn't follow the principles of the founding fathers or the Constitution, and as a whole, we all borrow too much money. This is why we're in a recession. It is also because we have a central bank called the Fed.
     
    tesla, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  6. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #6
    I concur. I hope that people will learn from this experience and start to conserve energy, stop polluting, stop buying more junk that they don't need, become responsible spenders, live within their means. I think it will be worse before it gets any better and I believe that because all those with money with pull out of the sinking ship and will only come back to invest when the cycle has finished. It will be a loooong decade my friends.
     
    guru-seo, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  7. demosfen

    demosfen Peon

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    #7
    Based on the definition of recession and statistics, we have been in a recession for about 2 years now. (unless statistics that the goberment manufactures are considered, obviously). It's going to get much worse though
     
    demosfen, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  8. soniqhost.com

    soniqhost.com Notable Member

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    #8
    Ha, our economy is built on consumption, 2/3 of the GDP is consumer spending so if they follow your advice it would lead us into a recession.
     
    soniqhost.com, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  9. GTech

    GTech Rob Jones for President!

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    #9
    I believe we are headed, if not already there. It would be impossible not to. The economy is too cyclic not to go through a recession. One is due. It will correct itself and we will start the cycle over again. The only stable thing about the economy is, it's never stable.

    Perhaps the "frightening" part for some is, it may be the first recession in their lifetime. For those that have been around for a while, we've seen them come and go.
     
    GTech, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  10. soniqhost.com

    soniqhost.com Notable Member

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    #10
    The definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The last time that happened was in 2000-2001. So no we have not been in a recession for the last 2 years. We have had a growing economy for the last 5 years.
     
    soniqhost.com, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  11. soniqhost.com

    soniqhost.com Notable Member

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    #11
    No we are not in a recession, there is a concern that in the following months our economy will head into a recession because of the housing concerns but the housing market has been falling for the last year. One positive is the falling dollar which is helping our economy by making our goods cheaper on the global market and making exports surge in the last 2 years.
     
    soniqhost.com, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  12. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #12
    It's all debt spending friend. The bills come due.

    That's true, however no one living today I believe remembers a time when recessions did not occur in a boom/bust cycle. That would be prior to 1913.

    People are a little confused about the recession.

    We're actually flirting with a dollar crises, which will collapse the economy if the dollar devalues much further. The immediate solution is to return to 1979/80 interest rates, to bolster the dollar by contracting the economy and encouraging saving, but the problem in a such a heavily debt subsidized economy, is that those rates would cause mass bankruptcies.

    What's happened, is between the war, and consumer debt, the FED has actually managed to maneuver itself into a corner.

    We have two options.

    Really bad, or super bad.

    But either way, people are going to hurt.

    Now is not the time to hold any debt.
     
    guerilla, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  13. demosfen

    demosfen Peon

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    #13
    I said, "unless statistics that the goberment manufactures are considered"
    Having lived through collapse of the USSR, I've never heard gobment say a single bad thing about the economy, not even when (real) inflation was over 100%. It's always robust, unemployment is always under control, etc. Economists don't agree though. I am not talking about that illusory world where Bernanke lives. I'd LOVE to shop where he shops (inflation just 2%!), but with little kids to support, I have to be a realist. I didn't pay inflation since 2005 and I love it.
    Let's pay attention to what economists have to say, and ignore the politicians
     
    demosfen, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  14. soniqhost.com

    soniqhost.com Notable Member

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    #14
    Right we'll just through out all of our government statistic that has suited as well for the last 100 years and use something that you want to make up on the spot.

    When the economy is in a recession or when inflation does pick up our government statistic show that.
     
    soniqhost.com, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  15. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #15
    Please learn the difference between traditional CPI and core CPI.

    The statistics have not served us well, our dollars buy less and less every year, and the debt grows year after year. It was known to certain economists in the last century that eventually the bill would come due, and it has. You can only inflate the money and deficit spend so long until the currency is worthless. That's why socialist countries eventually collapse. They go broke trying to manipulate a free market.

    The sad irony is that we're actually subsidizing China, to save them. But that game will only last so long, once we're dead, the parasite won't be far behind.
     
    guerilla, Nov 21, 2007 IP
  16. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #16
    More bad news.
    Dollar Sets Fresh Record Lows vs. Euro, Swiss Franc Nov. 22nd 2007
     
    guru-seo, Nov 22, 2007 IP
  17. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #17
    guerilla, Nov 22, 2007 IP
  18. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #18
    The US is not in a recession. Unemployment is at historical lows and currently at 4.7%. The avearge was 6% during the 1980s. The economy is headed for a slowdown but it's not 100% that we will see a recession.

    The bad news is the dollar is dropping and it looks like the Fed will need to raise interest rates.

    Greenspan has said the Fed will have to raise interest rates to double-digit levels not seen since the 1980s in a bid to arrest rising inflation
    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2007-09-17-greenspan_N.htm?csp=34
     
    bogart, Nov 22, 2007 IP
  19. d16man

    d16man Well-Known Member

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    #19
    Its interesting that jobs still keep being added despite the bad house (selling) market...part of the reason the housing market is so bad is due to people who didn't know better about getting an adjustable rate loan, or didn't have the money management skills to keep good credit, then bought a house they could not afford. Hense the reason there are so many foreclosures.


    I look for the economy to pretty much stay steady throughout 2008, and then see a change potentially depending on how the markets (US and world) react after the presidential election. Even though I wish it weren't so, the markets reflect the political world all to often.
     
    d16man, Nov 22, 2007 IP
  20. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #20
    Housing is overvalued. As a rule of thumb the value of a house is 10x the yearly rent.

    Wall Street was loaning subprime money with no questions asked and the borrowers were spending in a drunken frenzy. After the election there will be a nice drop in prices and some good buying opportunities.

    One plus side of the housing bubble was that a lot of the money for subprime came from european and asian banks and after all the coming defaults the US will have gained over 1 trillion dollars at the expense of foreign banks.
     
    bogart, Nov 22, 2007 IP