what about makeoutclub.com, yebotv.com, etc these are being promoted by the same people who started out and made myspace and youtube popular. i am talking about the indie msuic labels from years way back when who were the tastemakers back then.
I think you underestimate how fickle people are. I know lots of people who got into friendster, got bored with that, moved onto myspace, got bored with that, then moved onto facebook. Facebook is smart in that it's found a way to keep adding novelty, in the form of the applications. But if someone comes up with a new idea,and people find it interesting and useful, they'll try it.
I'm already bored of facebook, thousands of silly things, you were biten by a vampire, you have a new beer in your inbox, take a movie compatibility test. Oh sure.. People will use the hype, and just wander around for something else. Next facebook is definitely not facebook.
Completely wrong. Facebook will grow to dominate all aspects of online media. The only company that can slow it down is google, but that is because google has much more money and can make aqusitions.
Facebook will get bought out before that happens and end up becoming "Microsoft Livebook" or "Google Faces".
I really didn't read the whole thing, just skimmed over it. It seemed like the bulk of this article is all speculation. And don't forget that since Facebook is indeed only 3 years old, you could only predict another 3-6 years into the future without being incredibly incorrect on profits and worth. Otherwise the data would be incredibly extrapolated ..
wait isnt that the point of creating websites now a days? things to do : 1.) Create Niche Site 2.) Get Lots Of traffic 3.) Media Attention 4.) Sell it to someone with much more $ then yourself.
At this stage facebook is too large to be bought out. This doesn't bode well for google, microsoft, and other media/internet companies.
People are easily bored these days, and another new thing will enter the market before you know it. I myself got bored with MySpace pretty quick, now I'm using Facebook, but I'm already bored with it. Facebook and MySpace might always have a lot of users, but they've both lost their hype by now. It's not new anymore...
Yes they will like they still keep using yahoo mail, hotmail, aim, or google Once you got a foothold and a strong, growing userbase the momentum can keep on going.
No, email, search engines and instant messengers aren't the same as social network sites, there's fundamental differences. You use an email client, search engine or a chat messenger, you build a social network. There's a completely different scale of time and effort investment on the side of the user. I doubt half of their user base will stay loyal with facebook and still be using it in 5 years time.
I still don't like facebook, I just dont get the allure. You're forced to use your first and last name and you don't even get a screenname, which is a real turnoff IMO.
no 5 years before everyone was saying that next geocities is geocities. Today, who cares geocities? 7 years before people were using yahoo! to search, it was un-beatable. But 2 Stanford student did not think that way. 3 years before, classmates.com was seen unachievable. Wikipedia was empty and people were saying: "OK good idea but it's empty, I see no future" Next internet is web 3.0 and than web 4.0 . That's all I know. Facebook understood how to manage web 2.0 world. If you want to be the masters of tomorrow try to understand how to manage web 3.0.
I see a common argument from those who disagree with me which is that popular websites become displaced by newer, better websites and thus loose their popularity. However that may not be so.
Some of you people disagreeing with Iamned have valid points BUT you need to go an watch Zuckerbergs F8 address (its in FaceBooks developers section). Essentailly, FB is pulling a Microsoft and positioning itself well to drown the competition by providing an open source aspect to its social map. In fact Microsoft is behind the scenes pulling the strings with facebook so don't be surpised to see some sort of long terms strategic alliance there. So what Zuckerberg has done is to open up FB to the masses of developers to bring new applications to the FB community whilst allowing them to still have ownership over it. This is clearly going to add long term value to the facebook community by providing a wealth of addon software. So they are really moving away from just being a social portal and have really positioned themselves as the premier web 2.0 platform...want to program something in aweb 2.0 style and get it marketed for free?? Then leverage off the FB social map. The reality is that they are doin what Microsoft did with the Windows platform....making their system the standard platform for all future social advances. Sure they lose some control but int he ong run their value thrivesby opening up their community to external businesses. Will this work??? Maybe...it depends on the uptake by the development community but Zuckerberg is going to great lengths to fund this by offering no ties grants to developers of up to 250k to develop facebook applications. So some serious people are now getting involved to bring new concepts to market. So while it might be true that there isnt alot of brand loyalty on the web ALA Google/Altavista...when you control the social map and open it up to the market, you are affecting the ease with which other competitors can enter the social networking scene...IMHO very smart! Also, this will kill myspace in the future...myspace is a closed system and is currently not evolving to keep pace with the technical side of the market...there is nothing in place like the FB applications to engage users. Just my 2 cents from a FB application entrepreneur. P.S there are some great synergies in the pipeline at FB, applications like skype integration,microsoft office style applications, youtube style applications and a variety of cool apps and games.