I was playing with the new version of Google's AdWords Traffic Estimator and came up with some numbers that don't make sense to me. I put in the word "barcodes" with a $2 max CPC and an $800 max budget and I'm running with All Locations and All Languages. Selecting Estimate then tells me there are 1.5 million searches for "barcodes" a month, or 50,000 a day, and the tool estimates that an ad that I paid $1.14 per click for would usually be in first place among the paid ads (position = 1.37) but I would only receive 691 clicks per day! With 50,000 people a day searching for "barcodes" why would an add that placed at the top of 50,000 SERPs only get 691 clicks!? Are all these people looking for information, rather than a place to buy, so they're virtually all going to the organic entries? Actually, Google doesn't even know yet what my ad will be. I might be offering information about barcodes, but they still say only 691 clicks. I'm missing something, I think. Thanks for any insight. I included a snap of the information:
I don't use the traffic estimator and could care less what it tells me. But in this case, it's likely correct in its assessment. Barcodes is too broad. In general, you should not bid on a one-word keyword. Others have likely tried what you want to try and that's the results they got. Not saying you won't beat those estimates, it is possible, but in my opinion it's not likely.
The 691 clicks is based on the CTR data available, which sounds about right at just over 1% This is a long-term forecast, based on what you have provided Short-term campaigns often yield better results, my own have been between 15% and 25%, which is a very high CTR Personally, using just that one keyword will be very restrictive and may lead to irrelevant searches and clicks I would start with a short-term campaign using a mix of keywords, between 75 and 100, for about 7 days I tend to this Monday to Sunday, and then create a new campaign on the Sunday for the following week, refined from the previous weeks results
You will spend a pretty penny for all those clicks if you chose to run that campaign. Probably would just lose a bunch of money without any revenue generated.
Lucid Web Marketing, Yes, I know. At this point I'm just trying to understand what the traffic estimator is returning if this input were provided. Thanks
M8INTERNET, First, thanks for the great information you're providing, for this question and the others I've posted. Wow! So only 1% of the people searching would click the top ad returned, even if it appeared relevant to their search? That surprises me. It's like the ad section is shunned and people go straight for organic results. Is that what happens? Fascinating! Why is a short term campaign better? Do campaigns get "stale" after awhile? Yes, I agree. I only used the single word to help me understand what the tool was doing. Thanks for your suggestions on ad campaigns.
What I understand from your Image is --- If you Pay 1$ Per Click & your Budget is 800$ you would only receive 800 clicks even if 1,500,000 people are searching for that keyword, coz you have set your budget as 800$.
Meedan, When I read your answer I said, "Yes! Of course." But it turns out that even if I set the daily budget at $10,000 I only get 711 clicks a day and I only spend $805 a day.
That's just it. That one word would very likely NOT be relevant and that's why it would get only 1% CTR, even if it was the top ad. The data you see makes perfect sense. It's not that people would shun it and go to the organics. In fact, the organics would not do any better. I don't know what M8 is talking about short-term campaigns yielding better results. A successful PPC campaign starts with the right keywords and ads that appeal to the reader. If you use "barcodes" for selling barcode equipment, that's not relevant because you may trigger your ads for "how do barcodes work" which obviously the searcher has no interest in researching or buying equipment. That brings your CTR down (the few who do click will be wasted) which brings down QS and costs go up. The tool does what it's supposed to do: give you an estimate of traffic based on what it knows and the input given.
Lucid, Thanks! I think it's starting to come into focus for me. When Google sees my keyword "barcode" it assumes (correctly) that my ad will also just focus on barcodes. Google then assumes that someone asking for "barcode reader," or "barcode scanner," or "how do barcodes work," etc will not find my "barcodes" ad very interesting. Is that their thought process?
It doesn't assume or think anything, it has real data to go on. In the ten years Adwords has existed, surely more than a few bid on "barcodes" and got similar results.