What do you guys think about the current efforts to put sanctions on Iran's oil? Do you think it would be effective? What outcomes do you predict it will have?
Sanctions ALWAYS fail because there is always some rogue state willing to circumvent them and feather their own nest. In this case both Russia and China will circumvent sanctions. Outcome = Anyone going along with the sanctions will lose millions of dollars. Anyone circumventing them will make millions of dollars. Iran raises prices and makes a killing.
I don't see a big deal here.If the sanctions create problems for Iran they may attempt to shut down the strait of Hormuz.This of course will drive up the price of oil,but I'm sure Saudi Arabia will simply increase oil production to compensate.So really not a serious concern.
Will America or forsake any Asian countries allow that? The tonnage of a Nimitz is larger than entire Iranian Navy combined. Go figure out!
@mob The operative word in my post was "attempt".Which would indicate a temporary problem.......again no big deal.
Two problems here. MOST of Saudi oil exits via the Strait of Hormuz. And the Saudis do not have enough reserve capacity to offset a 20% decline in oil shipments even if they produced full bore.
I think western governments know that very well too. One can say they even want to hurt the ordinary people (financially and socially) in order to get them to overthrow their own government.
Iran would have better luck putting a man on the moon than trying to close the Strait of Hormuz. Lets also not forget that Saudi Arabia doesn't have to carry the whole shortfall if Iranian oil disappears. We now have Iraq back online, producing more than ever. Iran stops producing oil and China is the nation that gets hurt. We all know China will never allow that.
"Probably" all the sabre rattling coming out of Teheran these days is just theatre but...what is troubling is Iran's fleet of "large torpedo boats"(navel classification based on tonnage).These swift vessels are small and manned by only 25 crew members.But these things can dart in and out and are so low to the water,that they are hard to detect by sea to surface radar.And Iran has been busy practicing night attacks in their military exercises.Hopefully they don't attempt to block the strait....they could cause some havoc to the U.S. fleet,not to mention world oil prices.
Note that I addressed ONE issue only, the issue highlighted in BLUE, since the poster obviously knows nothing about Saudi oil. I simply stated that the Saudis could not ramp up production as the poster suggested. A lot of Iraqi oil also exits through the Hormuz. I don't think the pipeline capacity available would allow Iraq to ramp up production to offset a closure.
As you pointed out, one carrier battle group assures an open path for Iraqi and Saudi Oil, and there is absolutely nothing Iran can do about that. If Iran were to instigate a conflict in the Hormuz, it would give the US and it's allies carte blanche to begin bombing operations on Iranian military infrastructure, and more specifically, their uranium enrichment facilities. From that perspective, it seems we would almost be hoping Iran would be stupid enough to instigate conflict. Regarding the ability ramp up oil production, both Saudi Arabia and Iraq have that capacity within certain constraints.
I'm not so sure that a carrier group would "assure" an open path for oil.The Iranians do not need to molest the American fleet which would be fatal.All they need do is threaten the oil tankers.Insurance companies would then panic and pull coverage,and the tankers would be docked.
Blocking the strait is as "easy as drinking a glass of water" as an Iranian navy chief said. We would all pay extremely high oil prices if something like this happened. Its not going to happen though because much of the oil that comes from the middle east goes to China, one of their allies. ------------ That's precisely what they are for - hurt the people. After these sanctions I don't know how long it will take for people to revolt, but it will be a bloody one, far worse than what we are seeing in Syria.
LoL. The usual, "I would kick your ass, but you aren't worth the trouble" tough guy talk. Any Iranian success at blocking international waters would be quickly followed by a US led international bombing campaign of Iran. They know it, you know it, I know it. Why try and make it something it isn't? If you want to know the real reason Iran is back at the nuclear negotiating table, consider this: Apparently, the newest round of sanctions state that the US will not do business with any country that does business with Iran. That includes China. You really think China is going to give up the fertile US market for it's products just so they can do business with a maniac? Not likely. @PoliticalTraveller: Ignoring the hard data on GDP, average incomes, etc, etc,etc, if the US were truly bankrupt, these sanctions would have absolutely no effect. After all, we would have no money to influence the behavior of any other country. The US economy only looks shaky until you compare us to someone else. If and when we do go bankrupt, no place else is going to fare much better.
Iranian regime and Israel as a country are the greatest threat to security in the region and must both be eliminated, which one goes first is not really important. Its normal for your currency to devalue after sanctions. The US dollar lost 10% of its value since Obama became president too and will continue to be devalued in the future.
Ah, there is that anti-Shia sentiment we all knew was there. You forgot to cheer for US weapons sales to KSA. A few differences. Firstly, our currency didn't devalue 10% in just a few days. Second, oil is priced in dollars. Third, import inflation stimulates US domestic manufacturing. For the US, currency devaluation has it's upsides. Not so for Iran.
Typical ignorant egoist non-educated American. You guys used to be so much more educated and used to attract so many great minds before - perhaps until 10 years ago. Unfortunately not so much anymore. I very much liked (and do like) the concept of "American dream" which is total freedom and total self control of one's destination. I don't see many people with those values anymore.