http://www.businessinsider.com/10-myths-about-the-new-top-level-domains-2011-8 My new guest post on Business Insider regarding the new TLD program and the new extensions that will come out of it. It goes against the grain of what everyone else has been saying for the most part. Feel free to share your thoughts!
I have to agree with most of what you wrote in the article. The fear of the unknown has lead to some bad reporting and analysis on the issue. I read the application on the day it was released and what struck me is that if you don't get the domain you are out the full $185k. That alone will keep most on the sidelines. It will be interesting to see how the assignment process will work when there is more than one party with a legit claim to buy the domain. In Las Vegas there are two groups publicly going after .vegas. One has the backing of the city the other has the backing of the county. Someone is going to be left out in the cold. The icann estimate of 300 - 1000 new TLD's a year sounds really optimistic. After the initial rush of big name destination cities and some large corporations where is the demand?
Agreed on all points. It'll be interesting to see what will happen with some city names where there are multiple good-sized cities with the same name. That's going to be one huge mess. Regarding being out the $185k, if anything I think that will cut out a lot of the weak applications for extensions that simply shouldn't be considered. I somewhat doubt ICANN will end up turning down very many applications. If they do though, that'd be some dagger in the heart!