United States Heading towards a Depression?

20% Drop in Housing to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling

"Economic growth here and abroad is slipping, making a 2012 recession a distinct possibility"

Shilling says the shock to trigger the next recess is "another big leg-down in housing." (An asset class the Fed has not been able to reflate.)

The problem with the real estate market remains excess inventory. Based on Shilling's research, there are 2 million to 2.5 million excess homes in the country -- a supply that will take 4-5 years to work-off. The result: Housing prices will fall another 20% and underwater mortgages will balloon from 23% to 40%, he says.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/dail...cause-recession-2012-says-gary-161445494.html

Taxes are already set to increase in 2013 due to the expiration of the "Bush" tax cuts and ObamaCare.

 

Bogart: I'm a real estate guy. You know that. I used to send you tips on how to buy properties at low prices. My tips were not the kind of thing you found in books. They came from deep experience. I did it. I learned it the old fashioned way: practise, practise, practise.

As bad as the housing situation is....and I think its huge, its bad, its perplexing, and as a nation we have not gotten a handle on it, I doubt its the biggest crisis by far.

Right at this moment the biggest crisis is the debt ceiling crisis. The ultra conservative Right Wing in the House that has tied its hands to the most potentially damaging political ploy in existance, the pledge to not raise taxes is holding up the single most critical issue that will be far worse than housing or tax increases: A refusal by the political right to make a deal and raise the debt ceiling.

Only EVERYONE who understands business agrees:

Here is who has told the congress to get this deal done:

Several hundred major corporate leaders from around the nation, major business lobbying groups and deeply conservative lobbying groups: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20079172-503544.html

Secondly the credit agencies have said GET THE DEAL DONE: Moody's spells it out: Get the deal done or else: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/175b0eea-ad5a-11e0-a24e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1S2FY3KEM

Thirdly an ultra conservative but deeply experienced member of congress who has signed the no-tax pledge, Senate Majority Leader McConnell came up with a way for a deal to get done, regardless of intransience in the house: http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/12/news/la-pn-mcconnell-debt-plan-20110712

Basically anyone with an ounce of responsibility, some knowledge, and an appreciation for the consequences, including a lot of people with Republican credentials have stated: GET THIS THING DONE.

Forced non-payment caused in this unnatural fashion by politicians and extremists will cause the following: US debt costs will go up. Private debt costs will go up. The economy will shrink again. More businesses will suffer, there will be drastically less credit, more businesses will falter, businesses will lay off more people, there will be less demand in the US economy. Everyone will end up hurting.

The last time the extremist Right took the same non thinking non economic extremist action the House of Representatives voted down TARP on September 29, 2008. The negative vote was the result of an overwhelming number of Right Wing Extremists who voted NO.

Here is what occurred. The Dow Jones dropped almost 800 points: How quickly we forget: http://www.coloradopols.com/diary/16026/obama-scolds-congress-on-budget-talks On top of that interest rate spreads between private loans and government guaranteed loans were already at a 30 year high, and LIBOR, which you know, Bogart, was poised to jump about 3% points meaning that trillions of dollars of variable rate car loans, home loans, aggregated CC card loans, commercial loans were going to soar through the roof, suffocating much of the country.

Fortunately the hard hit in the head between political extremism and reality got the House to pass a slight variation on TARP on October 2, 2008.

At this point in time the Dems have offered budget cutting deals that approximate 75% govt cuts and 25% tax increases. What a deal. Polls of Americans that get into the details LOVE that deal. But not the extremist politicians.

The differences between some higher taxes and an enormous financial calamity is the difference between not having work, having a shrinking business, lower revenues...or paying taxes.

Put it that way and everyone will vote for higher taxes.

On the other hand if you don't want to pay taxes quit working and quit earning money. Oh.....that is what not passing the Debt ceiling deal will cause.

Virtually the entire Right Wing series of political points are worthless and dramatically not true over the last few decades:

Lets see: Point 1. Dont tax employers. Low taxes create jobs. During the past decade, during a period when taxes were dramatically lower than in the 1990's essentially NO NET Jobs were created. About 140 million Americans were working full time in 2011 and about 140 million workers in America are working now. No increase in jobs.

During the 1990's there were 22 million new jobs created!!!!


Govts. kill businesses and jobs. Yo tea partiers. Go Look at China. The Chinese government oversees and directs virtually the entire government and owns substantial elements of enterprise that are privately owned throughout the Western World. Chinese economic growth on a yearly basis over the last 20 years or so (or for any period you choose): http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth


Simply business growth is a function of demand and supply. It always goes back to basic economics. It never goes to politics. Right now with 9.2% unemployment plus another 8% of estimated underemployment about 24 million potential working Americans aren't working or are under employed. They may reprsent up to 70 million total population. That is up to 70 million Americans buying less, or virtually nothing. That kills demand. It kills consumer demand and it kills business investment to meet that demand. Consumer demand and business investment are the two largest components of the private part of American GDP.

You want crappier demand, don't make the debt deal, force more job losses and lower business volume. That is what not making the debt deal means.

At this point in time I wouldn't worry a rats ass about the obvious overabundance of housing in the US. Is there too much existing housing in the US? Yup. Can it force down prices? Yup. Will it take several years to be swept off the market? yep.

Is it the biggest problem? Not even Close. make the damn debt deal. its called compromise. Its what rational adults do.

 

Whats your point Mia, if anyones numbers are falling they are yours.
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So what, pandering has never been a shortcoming of Paul's.
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Residential could possibly get worse but frankly it never left 2007.......

bogart, your side is truly threatening the economic recovery and fiscal discipline as pointed out by earlpearl - if you people fail to pay the obligations the previous Administration is responsible for your predicted recession in 2012 would be a mild rash for what you will be responsible for in driving the nation into insolvency.

Seems to be your goal, a Depression just as the Iraq war was similarly as irresponsible and unjustified.

 

Moody's may downgrade US debt rating

 

Depression has arrived. This thread's answer to its question is "yes". If the debt ceiling is raised, one of the next rounds of printing up money "out of thin air" will send word to the nations that they do not want to use dollars any more. There will then be no need to print up dollars after that and the house of cards the bankers built will fall.


Every dollar printed up is an automatic debt because it is printed up by a bank that is charging interest on it. Who is going to pay off the loan that has been printed ? It is in the trillions. China and Russia are already not using the world currency for their transactions. They use their own. The nations do not want to use dollars any more because they have less value every time the central bank prints up another 600 to 800 Billion of them. The whole world is watching the USA to see if the bankers get permission from the government to print up another economy-killing wad of cash. LINK

 

The unfortunate state of affairs is the Republicans may already have stifled the recovery by their inaction and are now endangering its minimal cost of financing, low interest rates.....yes, the Republicans alone are bound to drive the economy into a Depression and unfortunately will be taking everyone with them.

 

Another day, another stake holder in world wide financial concerns tells the US government to GET THE DEBT CEILING DONE. China, biggest foreign credit holder just spoke to the issue: http://www.france24.com/en/20110714...ocrats-sovereign-debt-rating-agencies-finance

Unfortunately the US has perverted what should be a simple automatic and routine process for protecting its financial wherewithal: instead it is subjected to the political process. An apocolyptic cult of radical Right Wing Extremists are once again threatening to destroy the US economy. At this point the extreme Right Wing has all the attributes of Al Queda. Their similar level of extremism would subject the US to destruction.

Now we have the following lining up with the following comments:

1. American business leaders and significant Conservative Business Lobbying Groups: They say GET THE DEAL DONE
2. Credit Agencies: They say if the deal isn't done US credit ratings DROP
3. The Senate Republican Minority Leader: (he signed the anti tax "pledge"): He knows the deal MUST be done and articulated a way to do it.
4. Largest Foreign holder of debt. THEY SAY GET THE DEAL DONE

Meanwhile the RIGHT WING EXTREMISTS can't make a deal that gives them budget cutting items they've been screaming for for decades!!!!!!!

The US is currently being blackmailed by a singular cultish extremist group of RIGHT WING extremists. Osama bin Laden must be chuckling in his grave. The RIGHT WING extremists are moving the US to a position he could never accomplish.

 

You're going to kill this thread so very quickly with that foaming at the mouth tone you're taking. "Right wing" this and that. There's nothing "right wing" about any of the politicians in the US, unless you're referring to those who want to just cancel the debt and start a sound currency? It's hard to tell when you're rabidly screaming.

I don't understand why you're quoting China and other lobbyists, they have their own interests in mind. Why are you pushing for more debt, if I understand you correctly? Where do you think the money has to come from to repay this fictitious "money" that is merely faith based numbers on a screen? Don't you know that the US will never be able to pay back the interest alone? The world is in debt slavery as planned and you're calling for austerity? It's sure going well in Greece, Italy and Ireland..

Can you rephrase your points? All I can see is comparisons to terrorists and these alleged extremists. I'll tell you what is extreme, being trillions of dollars in debt, out of control speculation and pointless wars. These are ESTABLISHMENT EXTREMISTS, not "left" and "right". There are just as many rotten eggs in one party as there are in all the others.

 

Brum: Your comments have nothing to do with reality. Nobody who wants a political agreement to raise the politically mandated debt ceiling Wants more debt. Nobody is asking for it. All any reasonable person wants is to be able to operate outside of a form of bankruptcy caused by an artificial political mechanism.

Huge debt is horrendous. Here is how the US got there: 1. Tax reductions set in place by Bush: 2. Stupid unpaid for war, started by Bush 3. Expensive unpaid for govt expenditures unpaid for by Bush. 4. Worst recession in 70 years, occurred during Republican administration sucking the wind out of Govt revenues from a healthier economy. 5. and last the curent Dem govt is spending way more than current revenues coming in. Its called--> trying to fix the problems from the past and living in a crappy crappy financial environment.

On top of all that clearly social security and medicare/medicaid expenditures are raising at very high levels. On top of that the US govt spends basically the equal of all other nations as to defense. Having spent that much, we were in Iraq and the Bush administration virtually lost an unlosable war....and we are fighting in Afghanistan longer than for any other war....and it still sucks. There is something terribly wrong with that picture: All that defense money spent....and crappy results. If the expenditures versus results were a business/ a sports team/ a movie/ a play....anything that is measured for success in a business world--it simply would have been folded long ago.

Frankly, you are the guy that kept putting comments out about Osama not being killed or possibly having died years ago, simply refuting everyone who had a direct connection with it including the Americans who killed him, the Pakistani officials who went to his hideout, and al Queda who acknowledged his death. Now you are quibbling about business leaders who deal with financial consequences, the financial ratings companies who play a vital role in evaluating financial wherewithal, huge bond holders who will have to act on the world's largest financial disaster, and a long term govt official who has to take the heat.

So what I see are people of authority, experience, and responsibility on one side and Brum's world of make believe and nutty comments on the other side. I have a hard time giving your comments any credibility. Those that do must subscribe to the world of "facts don't matter".

Almost 3 years ago in late Sept of 2008 the Right Wing was screaming and wailing about political consequences concerning a govt bailout by the US of the enormous financial crisis that was ripping the world economy. Then a large majority of Right Wing Republicans voted against the first effort at TARP. The immediate consequence was an almost 800 point plunge by the DOW and world wide interest rates were on the verge of soaring, existing commercial rates versus govt guarantee rates were at a 30 year high and we were looking into the abyss that world wide economic conditions were going to tumble.

Then the Right Wing voted down the first effort at TARP and the market made clear the consequences. A few days later a lot of stubborn right wingers reversed their vote, TARP was established, the feds poured hundreds of billions if not more into failing commercial entities to resupport the collapsing private economy.....and slowly there has been recovery albeit crappy and slow within the US, mixed in other parts of the world with some horrendous aftershocks in places of high risk and strong economic growth in other places.

You don't like my comments? Go somewhere else where everyone who comments believes bin Laden died some time deep in the past and other fantasies take root.

 

How did you come to the conclusion that lower taxes caused more national debt? Are you saying, therefore, that you think people should be heavily taxed? By the way, Bush may have started these wars but Obama is continuing them, you look like Obama's servant pointing out Bush all the time. I know all about Keynesian Economics and it has been operating in America for many decades and here for even longer and let me tell you, we're just as fucked as you lot are. Pouring imaginary money into and endless pit is futile, can cause run away inflation - like it has here - and debases wages and causes incredible dependency. The funny thing is that all these problems you associate as stemming from the "right" was implemented nearly exactly over here from the "left"

You won't get any argument out of me concerning foreign policy.

Funny, I could have sworn you and Breeze are the only people here with these ideas. I'm the nutty one?

Trying to centrally mandate and plan everything like you're proposing will make matters far worse. It takes one wrong move from the government to destroy the country and economy. Things have been going down hill since the gold standard was abolished, it was only a matter of time until these artificial bubbles and temporary boosts would come back to haunt. Government should do less and concentrate on increasing The People's income and their freedom. Lower taxes, spending cuts, auditing the Fed. Res. and growing some balls to tell the bankers to get out is what would bring America back. You can't solve problems when corruption and treachery is the root.

So you're massively simplistic thinking is that because Republicans voted against TARP, saw the DOW fall that they must be the only factors? I think you're very naive to think that threats weren't made to certain congressmen regarding huge spending and bailouts. All it takes is fearmongering speculation to hit the floor.

I don't like your comments, you're correct. However, this isn't your thread so you can drop the arrogance.

Why don't you take the time to calmly explain to us all why increasing debt and spending will help. Did you know Japan has been in a recession since the 90's and has thoroughly exhausted "quantitative easing" and similar bullshit the fat cats are trying in our countries.

Government caused this problem and no government can fix it. Why is this notion so "nutty"? It's like you have Stockholm syndrome. Obama and his crew will do no more to help than any previous president. I'll ask you again where you think the money to repay the massive debt will come from.

Patchwork governing does not work. By the time government gets around to placing buckets under a few leaks there are ever more appearing. Like Mia said something along the lines of: "You can't put out a fire with gasoline".

By the way, nice red herring. The majority of us here are mature enough to stick to economic discussion and not other ideas and posts, especially not in order to defame or discredit someone. If your argument is so strong and you have the evidence, you wouldn't need to mention Osama. Please show me these facts that I'm apparently denying.

 

Brum: Despite your claims and the comments of the Right which over the last 20-30 years in the US dominate the media; the US is so far removed from central planning, socialism, etc. that it is a joke. Relative to the rest of the world this is a virtual hyper capitalistic world and/or a world where politicians accommodate the needs and wants of huge businesses. When Obama was trying "stimulus" he didn't do anything about getting private businesses to hire. he or nobody in the govt can. Private businesses do what they wish. On top of that there are so few built in protections of workers as a national policy or objective that senior management dictates all hiring firing, part time work etc. The US worker has far fewer protections than in Europe, by example. Since the worst of the recession huge American businesses (fortune 500) have aggregated record PROFITS and CASH. Records!!!! But they aren't hiring in the US. Govt. can't do squat about it. ZERO govt controls in that regard.

There is ZERO govt. planning on where to go with the economy or where to invest. Okay not zero but a tiny impact compared to past decades. Don't compare it to past decades compare it to China whose economy has experienced incredible non stop growth for SEVERAL DECADES. In China there is overwhelming direction from the govt. China has increased private industry, has them compete with govt. owned entities than yanks the Chinese private industries chains when competing with the govt controlled entities.

When one looks at China one sees that these theories of absolute Ayn Randiism/Ron Paulism whatever its called are fantasy. The Chinese system is working great as it regards economic growth and its pretty much 100% opposite of the Right Wing extreme screams and threatens about.

Extremist perspectives on economics stemming from political biases are mostly bullshit when they run into the realities of the real world. that is my long term experience. I am a long term business man. Basically a capitalist in action. I own businesses.

I loved the literature of the extreme right, and the energy of Ayn Rand when I was very young. My heart pulls to extremist leftist literture and socialistic perspectives. I favor the underdog. But as an experienced business person I'm focused on making the business work, meeting payrolls, then making a profit. When I meet payrolls people stay working. When I produce a product or service that meets and exceeds demand we make a lot. All that other stuff goes by the wayside. My businesses deal with govt regulations. We simply meet them. We keep on working. They don't kill us one way or other. The best thing we do is exceed needs/essentially expand demand and then everyone in the business and customers are happy. We create value.

I've always found the arguments about taxation specious. The loudest screams are by theorists and politicians not working people. I was a commercial real estate broker for several decades. That means I leased and sold commercial real estate. It was totally capitalistic. I had ZERO salary. Everything I made was via commissions. If I made more deals I made more money. that simple.

In the 1990's I was hot. I was at a point where every year I hit the 50% marginal tax bracket; 39.6% federal and roughly 10% state. Definitely high taxes. It didn't matter. If I made more deals I made more money. I didn't care about taxes. If I didn't make deals I didn't make money. Why in gods earth would I worry about taxes? I had lots of incentive. That was the same for about 500 to 1,000 other commercial brokers in my region. Taxes were irrelevant. That is actually how all businesses work. If there is more DEMAND work more, produce more. Meet demand.

When the decade started in the 1990's I had the same attitude but ZERO income essentially from transactions. The industry was in DEPRESSION--not recession. Essentially because of industry wide failure all liquidity had been pulled from the industry. Banks failed, buildings failed. No buildings were being sold. For a period of time, until the govt stepped in and took control of buildings (owned them) you couldn't lease space in possibly 1/3 or more of the many office buildings in my large market. There was no liquidity. No "investment money" to build out space for a tenant. The govt came in, bought up buildings in bankruptcy through the Resolution Trust Fund, owned them, got them working and then resold them to private industry when the "market returned". The fed govt went to massive acquistion and purchase of billions of dollars of value in commercial property.

Funny thing is nobody screamed of govt controll, centralized planning socialism whatsoever. you never heard a peep of it from the political class in the US. Do you know why?

First Reagan was in office than Bush 1 when all this sh1t hit the fan. Right Wingers didn't say a peep about socialism and govt control.

The RIGHT WING is screaming about taxes. Here is something they will not budge on.

Hedge fund managers pay a 15% federal tax on the bulk of their income. Last year the top 25 hedge fund operators averaged $1billion in income per person. The vast bulk of their income is subject to the 15% max tax rate.

Lets do some math. Lets just say that $800 million per hedge fund operator is subject to a 15% tax. Lucky guys. People who make a couple of million a year and aren't hedge fund operators are subject to a 35% tax rate.

So on that $800 million a year multiply it by the 25 highly successful, well paid hedge fund operators and you get a gross income of $20 billion dollars. Those wonderful blessed people paid $3billion in federal taxes on that money. Boy that is a lot. But the poor slobs who are just your average everyday millionaires would have paid $7 billion in taxes on the same aggregate income.

Wow....the hedge fund operators didn't have to pay the feds $4 billion. They must be handsome. Why else do they get such a break?

Now in the latest round of negotiations on the debt ceiling deal RIGHT WING republicans refuse to budge on the hedge fund deal. They must love those handsome hedgefund people. Each one gets to keep on average $680 million per person pre state taxes pre disposable income. If they were like the rest of the poor slobs and had to pay 35% taxes on the estimated $800 million per person tax break gifted per person...they would only have gotten to keep 65% (100% less 35% standard high income earner federal tax rate) of the average $800 million in income. Oh that is rough. They only would have had $520 million per person rather than $680 million per person.

That is rough. Who the hell can live on disposable income of $520 million/per person???? Actually less....those poor fellas would have had to pay state taxes in most cases.

The RIGHT WING demands that govt moneys for the poorest of the poor and the sickest of the sick be cut....Meanwhile the handsome hedge fund operators get about $680 million/per person rather than a measly $520 million per person.

(oh yeah...its not only Right Wing nut cases, Schumer the Dem senator from NY is probably lobbying on behalf of the hedge fund folks--he just doesn't use the same arguments.)

Just suppose the Right Wing acted like wusses and caved on that issue in order to make a deal and keep the economy from going into financial collapse. Suppose they caved on some other issues such as tax breaks that enabled GE to pay ZERO on federal taxes with about $5 billion on recorded US income, and additionally a fairly sizable government sales division that sells to the feds and taxpayers pay for.

If they agreed....there would be huge decreases in Fed expenditures....roughly 3 times the decreases for every increase in fed income through taxes.

The RIGHT WING won't agree. They think the hedge fund operators MUST HAVE THAT MONEY!!!

I can see your point. Its tough getting by on $520 million a year. That is more than $40 million/month and more than $1 million/day in disposable income. If I was facing that problem I'd never supersize at McDonalds. Just couldn't afford it.

Hey...just suppose the feds got that money...that extra $4 billion/year because the Right Wing got weak. Suppose they took half of it and paid down debt. It doesn't solve the debt problem but it helps.

Then suppose they took $2 billion and hired people who are unemployed or underemployed (I can hear the Right Wing screams now--"Those aren't jobs". Say they hired each person at $40,000/year. That is better than no money...but from the perspective of a impoverished hedge fund manager netting a measely $1 million/day that comes to about 1/2 hour of work. Ah yes...the whole things screams of fairness.

At $40,000 year supported by that moment of weakness exhibited by the Right Wing that freed up the money for people getting hired means that 50,000 people not working and who can't afford shoes and housing etc. get to live a better life and pour most of that money back into the economy. Ah...sweet demand goes up.

But its all fantasy on my part. Screw keeping the US out of artificially and politically induced DEFAULT. Its absolutely critical the RIGHT WING Protects the RIGHTS OF THE HEDGE FUND OPERATORS!!!! Life wouldn't be worth living if they couldn't supersize at McDonalds whenever they felt like it.

 

There's nothing capitalistic about the government bending to the will of corporations. That's called fascism.

You've misunderstood me. I fully understand the comparatively deregulated markets compared to here, but I never claimed government dictates to big business, it's the inverse, of course.

I agree the hedge fund operators are protected, but it's not the "right" who are the proponents. Barry's main source of campaign contributions came from his best mates at Wall St.

You are destined to forever go in circles while your mind operates in the false "left-right" paradigm. Hopefully one day you'll eventually realise that government is the problem, not party critters.

"Government is a dangerous servant and a fearful master" - George Washington.

You really must not understand Paul and Rand's philosophy if you believe China's huge growth is at all relevant. Take a huge country, with a huge population that was completely underdeveloped by the rest of the world's standards and enforce faith into a currency which is pumped out by the government and receives billions of dollars in aid and of course the politically induced outsourcing of work from around the world. There's no medal for guessing the gigantic rate of growth and prosperity generated. Central planning always fails in the end, just you wait about thirty years and you'll see China face the exact same problems all other centralised empires have done.

China is a booming economy but any country would be given their circumstances. No one claims Socialism doesn't generate short term growth, it's just that these Chinese have paid the ultimate price, their freedom we take for granted. The same thing happened under Stalin, we all know how huge they became and then how hard they fell. Who are you trying to kid?

Interesting story about your past, you should now stick to this more calm projection. Please, please, please do not tell me that the politicians and "theorists" are the ones screaming the loudest about tax. You yanks have no idea at all. I live in a city which has become massively dilapidated in the last one hundred years. I see the working class complaining about taxes constantly. No one likes taxes and it's an absolute abomination for a group of intellectuals to sit hundreds or even thousands of miles away, planning and arguing the best idea to spend everyone else's money. Globalisation is going to make this far worse.

Karl Marx said that man does not own the fruits of his labour. Your Founding Fathers thought diametrically and an age of prosperity and freedom the world had not seen before descended upon your corner of the world. I want to keep what I earn, you should keep what you earn.

In one sense I'll be waiting eagerly for a few decades to see how you really like Europisation of the Land of the Free. It's sure as hell coming and when it does I'll send you a PM and you can share your thoughts on austerity, huge taxation, massive spending cuts, government dictated health care, high unemployment and inflation and of course, no firearms.

Many people fled the former Soviet Union and its bloc to America and Western Europe. I hear them already comparing similarities and this is just the beginning of the Anglo-American demise.

Oh.. I know all too well. People are so fickle. You won't hear people complaining until they lose big brother's hand outs. I see it here all the time: students protesting and public sector workers striking. This is big government's fault for allowing such dependency. Our forbearers would be ashamed.

I think there must have been some miscommunication. I agree with a lot of your points, it's just that I can't see how the fat cats can be labelled as "left" or "right". Like I said before, they argue about which lobbyists they're supporting. No one really has The People in mind, only those for the Constitution; those sacred hemp parchments that protected We The People from any oppressive group - government or corporation.

Charterism must be brought back. Andrew Jackson should be cloned and led to route out fascist traitors of all parties.

Rhino Republicans don't know the meaning of the word "Republic", nor do Democrats know the meaning of the word "democracy". Bring back the Democratic-Republicans I say. The only solution to this problem is nationalism. Charity starts at home.

 

Ayn Rand and Ron Paul are fanticists. I have both very close and some connection to two of the claims coming out of Paul that have to do with real economic activity: His commentary are destructive, they miss reality, and in the case wherein I had incredibly close connection....what he proposes as a positive turned into an unmitigated disaster: giving small banking institutions huge unregulated freedoms. Doing that in the 1980's turned into one of the root causes of the recession of about 1989-1991.

Facism???? lets see Hitler and Mussolini ran everything....businesses, people --> everything bent to their wills.

Where is this crazy notion that China's situation was inevitable? China's experience is unlike anything anywhere. Give me a break about the predictions.

this political philosophy stuff on the extremes is endlessly problematic.

Your Randiism may suggest a different paradigm but right now in real life in the US --the right wing and the tea partiers/often proposing things that are pure Rand Paul are moving the US into default because of their intransience.

As to Barack Obama getting beaucoups Bucks from the hedge funds. yes he did. they also give lots of money to the right. They have lots of money. They spread it around for influence whereever they need. What is a couple of million in buying off all the politicians when you have billions to protect? Frankly what is $50 million in buying political protection when you are protecting Billions.

Meanwhile in specific facts Obama put tax increases on the Hedge Fund managers on the table and the Republicans rejected it. FACTS. REALITY. the right wing extremists would rather have the US go into default than make a deal wherein the poor sad potentially wealthiest most successful, of the hedge fund managers are faced with a miserable life of about $40million/month rather than what they absolutely need --> about $55 million/month--all in disposable income.

Here is where we stand. A political cult of fanatics have shown themselves NOT TO CARE ONE WHIT ABOUT the enormous debt the nation faces and a potential enormous artificially induced DEFAULT that will hurt everyone.

They insist that about 25 hedge fund managers at the top MUST get every last red cent of about $1.8 million /day disposable income rather than a measely $1.3million/day in disposable income.

I know that would really suck for the hedge fund managers. Life would be Rough. I was quite surprised though. Even if the hedge fund managers are sacrficed and betrayed by the Pledge Signing Right Wing extremists....they could still manage to stay in one of these places and still have enough money to supersize a mcdonalds every day of the year.

In fact even if the betrayed hedge fund managers were thrown to the wolves and sacrificed for the good of the country and basically lose about $0.5million/day. they could stay at one of those rooms every day of the year.....and still have about $1million/day to blow on worthless crap!!!

how do you like that? maybe the hedge fund managers can be part of the solution and take a tax hit so the rest of the country is saved from disaster.

 

Aw Jesus, come on! You're debating me on politics, shitting on my ideas and you have no idea what fascism is? Don't confuse and generalise authoritarianism and fascism. Hitler was national-socialist, fascism was not so much of an element in his ideology as dictatorial socialism was. Mussolini on the other hand, the father of fascism, took ideas from the national-syndicalists and implemented it. The merge of big business and big government = corporatism (economic fascism). Which is what we see today in the West but at a more subtle and refined (in an insidious sense) than it was 90 years ago upon conception.

I mean, damn, could I have made it any more clear that I was referring to economic fascism?

Look up fabian fasicsm for the connect. Quite... fascinating to see the West take socialism developed in Russia and modify it to be almost scientific, that became fabian socialism or the fabian society; almost a "natural" progression, or... evolution. The elite really did take Darwin's and Malthus's ideas into thought. Looks like Aldous Huxley was on to something.

For a moment I thought I'd coined a new political label for today's intelligent fascism, but it turned out it exists in google. Damn!

If you take any country that is massively underdeveloped, pump billions of money into it, mobilise the masses into a workforce and have employment from around the world running to it, what do you think is going to happen!? What do you think Henry Kissinger and his cronies where doing in China during the 70's and 80's? Connect the freakin' dots...

AND???

Also, why are you going on and on about the bankers and the hedge fund owners? I KNOW they're evil bastards! Are you having difficulty reading my posts? Ron Paul, however, has great disdain for them.

I've had enough of typing out big posts in vain.

 

Then that is your reason for going on and on, for Ron Paul?

Ron Paul is campaigning under the Republican banner, those responsible for the 07-09 Great Recession.

When are you going to wake up BRUm - his agenda and the failed past are paths to the same destination if not the same means of attaining it.

 

The amazing thing about Ron Paul is that at the core of his argument is how unbelievably bad governments are, how screwed up, and evil they are, and how they absolutely kill the economy.

Then one mentions China. Oh they might be miserable when it comes to freedoms and human rights, let alone they want to crush individualness. But oh boy can that government turn a country into an economic engine. All that government and all that economic growth.

So how does Ron Paul respond?

Its an EXCEPTION!!!!! it was inevitable.


Hardy har har. that takes the cake for being LAME.

ron paul lives in a world of reverse socialism. its simply another form of economic extremism. Naive and extremist types love it.

Its horrendous in the real world. He probably loves the oncoming stalemate and horrendous debacle that will occur when Congress can't agree on the debt ceiling issue. His entire career in Congress is about being a gadfly and disagreeing with everyone. Essentially he is never responsible for getting things done.

For the Vast majority of his adult life Ron Paul has made his money off of taxpayers working for the government. or as my brother says....living off the govt t!t. Its quite ironic he is an expert on privatism. Its like the voiceless person teaching people to sing or the blind man teaching people to read.

Quit the government. Get a job. Build wealth. Then tell us all about it. Alternatively become Warren Buffett.

 

Breeze, Paul is campaigning under Republican as it gives him a bigger platform and chance of being elected. He ran for the Constitution party previously. Anyone with half a brain would be able to see how Paul is completely different from the other Republicans. His "own party" even opposes what he says. You'd think, therefore, people like you would agree with him since your childish mentality means you put more importance into a party and its name rather than the politicians and their ideas. "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" comes to mind.

When will YOU wake up to the fact that politicians and corporations couldn't give two shiny shites about you or you freedom? The answer is not more government or more delegation of power to centralised groups, the answer is individual empowerment.

You're blaming Ron Paul for trying to make positive change in government? Just because he thinks big government is bad for us and actually does something about it, which is more than can be said for you and I, he's a hypocrite? Man, you guys are deranged. You don't deserve Paul and deserve everything that's coming.

Earl, I'm going to leave this thread now. You've proven to me that no only do you ignore my points but you also do not understand them. I made excellent points about China but instead you put your fingers in your ears and ignore what I said. China is an economic giant, sure, no-one ever stated China is an exception, that this could not be the case nor that Socialism doesn't allow this to happen temporarily, rather the price to pay for it is not worth it. I'll keep my civil liberties, or what I have left of them, thank you very much. See you in a decade or so. I'll return to ask how you're liking the fascism.

Enjoy arguing with yourself, you're about to find out that intelligent debates and people educated in history and politics, such as myself, are hard to come by around here.

Hope you all have a great day,
Lee.

 

He is quitting. Its his last term. Some people do not need to live in a garbage can to know it stinks in there. If people would somehow learn from history, they would not have to repeat it.

 

No. What I am implying is that when given a choice whether or not to join a union (e.g. choose to pay your dues , not have them automatically taken out of your paycheck), 99.9999% of workers chose to KEEP their money and as a result, do not join the union.

In every state that has given a worker the right to chose, the unions have pretty much disappeared. Productivity has gone up, workers make more and there's less money to buy votes and candidates on the left.

 

Barry Obama gave today a "Dent Speech" on anniversary of Carter's famous "malaise speech"- July 15, 1979.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/07/15/press-conference-president

Obama is all over the place like jello. Anyways, Carter must be happy. Obama is making the Carter years look good by comparison.

President Jimmy Carter - "Crisis of Confidence" Speech famous "malaise speech"- July 15, 1979

[video=youtube;KCOd-qWZB_g]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCOd-qWZB_g[/video]