Hi, I'm trying to forecast some sales. I have no idea what I'm doing, but anyhow: I have an Excel spreadsheet listing the states I want to market to, the GDP per capita (PPP) of each state, how many men there are in my market, and how many women. I assume the conversion ratio is 2% for men and %5 for women. Now that I got this - what basic mathematics / advanced economic models could I apply to try to forecast sales? And is there any other data that I could try get my hands on that could help me create an even more precise model? Thanks!
I think forecast sales is done based on what market you chose and the demand you have in it.. And how efficient you can project yourself to make people take your service to meet their needs. Probably a accounts or commerce student can help you with formula.
In that case you will need market research that covers market demand, market potential, company demand, and current demand, as well as gathering results of surveys and polls to guess what buyers want to buy. So far you have a breakdown of men vs women population and earnings by state? Maybe that would help you with mass advertising from a high level to make very general assumptions, but that is not going to help you make a decision about anything else. Well since you asked here are a few ideas (but I still don't understand how much this will help because you have not told us anything about the product or service you want to sell). Statistical Tools Multiple regression Discriminant analysis Factor analysis Cluster analysis Conjoint analysis Multidimensional analysis Models Markov-process model Queuing model New-product pretest model Sales-response models Optimization Routines Differential calculus Mathematical programming Statistical decision theory Game theory Heuristics
you need to find out other factors as well such as trend, seasonality index, current demand... This is an impossible question because your marketing isn't going to reach an entire population of a state. You should focus on what your marketing technique is, and how large of an audience you can reach. Then you can start off small scale by calculating conversion rates from making a few sales off of a very small population (a test sample), then scale up your results from there to figure out what your maximum potential is.
Why not get some success in sales first and then grow the "empire" from that? The above information looks overwhelming!