United States Heading towards a Depression?

Harmful, yet entertaining. Nice.

You go girl!

BTW...

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/27/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?cnn=yes&hpt=T2

Stocks sink as Fed hopes wane 100+ Points down.

 

Check it out. Aside from high unemployment, real hourly compensation is plummeting in the private sectors due to the rules of supply and demand.

======================================================================================================
Table A. Revised second-quarter 2010 measures: percent change from previous quarter, annual rate 
(Q to Q) and from same quarter a year ago (Y to Y)

Sector                   Nonfarm                                         Durable         Nondurable
                         Business         Business       Manufacturing   Manufacturing   Manufacturing
                       Q to Q   Y to Y  Q to Q  Y to Y  Q to Q  Y to Y  Q to Q  Y to Y  Q to Q  Y to Y
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
Productivity            -1.8      3.7    -1.9     3.7     4.1     7.5     9.9    11.4    -2.4    3.2
Output                   1.6      3.7     1.7     3.7     8.4     8.4    13.6    12.0     2.8    4.5
Hours                    3.5      0.0     3.7     0.0     4.1     0.8     3.4     0.5     5.3    1.2
Hourly 
 compensation 	    	-0.7      0.8    -0.8     0.8    -2.0    -0.3    -1.9    -0.5    -2.1    0.1
Real hourly 
 compensation 		 0.0     -1.0    -0.1    -1.0    -1.3    -2.1    -1.2    -2.3    -1.4   -1.6
Unit labor 
 costs         	 	 1.1     -2.8     1.1    -2.8    -5.9    -7.3   -10.7   -10.7     0.3   -3.0
======================================================================================================

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On the bright side, if you run a labor dependent business, unit labor costs have fallen even further taking into consideration higher worker productivity(read workers in fear of losing their job) and lower rates of real hourly compensation.

I only bothered to look it up after reading this article. It seems our DOJ and it's army of highly paid lawyers has spent the last two years holding meetings and hearings into whether or not to prosecute the two men caught on tape intimidating voters in the 2008 election, who already had a defacto judgement against them. It also made me think of the hearings into Charlie Rangle's well documented illegal activities. Those hearings have been proceeding for almost four years now, with little progress despite pedigreed power players spending so much time on it.

The bureau of labor statistics measures worker productivity as an index of gross output measured against hours worked by all workers. Unfortunately, since the government does not have any measurable output(they produce no part of our GDP), it is impossible to measure their worker productivity. What does seem apparent is that, lacking any measure of productivity, these may be the most unproductive people on the face of the planet.

Does it really need to take two years to prosecute a cut and dry case, with live video tape as evidence? If so, how much is it costing the taxpayer to pay all the salaries involved? I cant help but think that, if the two voter intimidators were fined an amount equal to the costs of prosecuting them, their fine would put a healthy dent in our federal budget deficit.

 

It ended down ~ 40 pts., earning reports are a mixed bag - the 11000 is a tough nut to crack.

At this time the market remains an example of the progress accomplished by the Administration in correcting the economy.

Maybe noticed and surly it was not a bubble but Steel has popped. A few months from now there may well be opportunities for a rebound.

 

If that were true, all the Obama administration would have to do in order to "correct the economy" would be to print more money. That would cause inflation to rise, cause the dollar to devalue, and cause the stock market to (nominally) rise.

These things are pretty simple bwood, try to think about how inflation affects dollar denominated things.

 

this is what jim rogers has to say

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4610704.cms?flstry=1

 

Jim is my neighbor.

 

any stock tips for us poor souls

 

Tip #1: Avoid the stock market.

 

duhh ....

seems jim wants to corner all the money himself

 

Especially right now. It's the end of the month and elections are on Tuesday. The market is at it's peak and due for a pullback. You can see stocks teetering for a week or two already. If the markets don't start falling today, watch for it by Wednesday.

We might not see more than a week or two of that but the market will tell us when to buy back in (I'm short). It would be sad if this were to last two months but I don't see that.

Tips for the stock market? This is actually a great time to be in but you need to learn stuff first. The best book to get is "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William O'Neil. The second thing to get is Investor's Business Daily subscription, or read it at your local library. You can't get a better start in the markets.

Second piece of advise. Don't watch CNBC and don't read the financial newspapers or listen to anyone else's stock tips. They only look at a narrow picture and what's happening that day. If the market is up today, they paint a rosy picture. If it's down tomorrow they spell doom and gloom. Both are wrong.

Third, use real money when you start and don't trade on paper. But don't go all in till you have confidence in what you're doing. Confidence is everything.

Fourth, never be confident. When you're sure you're doing everything right but you're losing money, you'll continue to lose money.

 

Sure fire way to avoid losing all your money!

 

Very funny. Was the message "don't go all in?" If so, good advice.

As far as trusting Investors Business Daily, why do you give them the "non-propaganda" pass? Do their stock gurus have something higher than Jim Cramers high 30% successful stock prediction rate? It seems one could make lot of money by shorting every stock Cramer advises you to go long on.

 

Actually, the message is, don't be so confident you're right when the market is saying you're wrong.

I don't know what you mean by that.

IBD doesn't make predictions. They present the data. They talk about what makes a good company from the financial side and then talk about how to look at patterns on charts from the technical side. From that they may say something is a good stock but I've never read any predictions on whether it's going up/down or even a target price.

Cramer is one of those CNBC types I advise never to listen to or watch. His antics remind me of a side-show barker at the circus. A clown.

 

Also great advice, though I think not ever going all in may be better advice. It seems a constantly rebalanced portfolio may be one of the most important things to wealth retention.

 

Institutions do "sector rotation" and so should we. Today's hot stock is tomorrow's dog.

 

No certainty from here on the Dow but the indicator can not be used against the Administration in regards to the elections and has offered a subtle reassurance to the public.

Printing money as necessary for liquidity under the present conditions is the appropriate policy in remedy for the malfeasances of the past Administration.

Stocks in the long run are a hedge against inflation in a recovering environment.

Steel stocks are on their way down - some opportunities there in the near future.....

 

I have to agree with Warren Buffett on this one, "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing."

Diversification means you aren't like to lose big, or win big. I think it's a better strategy, when possible to become a deep expert on one thing and press hard on that one thing. The risk, of course, is that you may not be as much of an expert as you think. Lots of very bright boys have lost a lot of money in the last few years, and not all of them had friends in the federal government.

Still, yes, you're right. Even when you're the worlds leading expert on widgets, it's nice to have at least a years living money in anything else.

 

This quote from Barney Frank is pertinent to this discussion, although it refers to a topic that is a few pages back now:

“I hope by next year we’ll have abolished Fannie and Freddie. It was a great mistake to push lower-income people into housing they couldn’t afford and couldn’t really handle once they had it. I had been too sanguine about Fannie and Freddie.” -- Barney Frank​

But now it looks like Barney is doing another about-face. He's one of the Democrats pushing for a major expansion of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) before the Republicans take office.

More here.

 

I was going a bit beyond that, referring to bonds, real estate holdings, cash positions, etc.

Protection from ignorance. When it comes to stocks, that is definitely me and probably most other people. As you pointed out, many of the so-called "experts" get burned. One thing is certain though. The broker always makes his fee.

I considered tech my area of expertise in 2001 and was a big believer in the idea that non-diversification meant bigger gains. Unfortunately, when a 5000 point market shrinks to 1200, there isn't any place to hide, even for the so-called "experts". By chance, I ended up marrying a professional financial advisor, who mocks me and laughs at me every time I bring it up. A decade later, I'm only now considering active management of my portfolio, but stocks will never occupy such a large percentage of my portfolio ever again. Too much of an insiders game IMO.

 

That was me, too. My problem was I was learning how to trade when everything was going up. I was making $7-$10K on some days. So when things turned around, it didn't make sense to me and I figured if I held, it will start going up again. Of course, there were some good days and weeks so I figured I was safe only to lose twice as much the next day/week. It took me till this year...THIS YEAR...to gain all that back. Fortunately, there were many lessons learned.

Like shorting ARBA and SKS too early. I got out of ARBA with $240 but it took me a week to do that. SKS I'm still praying on.

Agree but that's why I only follow the charts. When I get in at the right time, I can go back to my web dev stuff. Figuring out the right time makes it a full time job and I'll sit there analyzing every minute and every purchase/sell throughout the day. Even then you can get it wrong.