So many of the times I use the traffic estimator after I'm done setting up my campaign to gauge what rank my ad will have. In this one case for instance, I'm told that for a $1.25 bid, my ad will rank 4-6. Ok, great. Now the ad's run and my ad is appearing on page 6 or 7 of the search results -- a whopping 35-40 positions behind where it was advertised to me where it would be running for that bid price. I understand there may be this or that reason for it, but if I was to submit a classified ad to a newpaper and pay $125 for a half page ad, and ended up getting a 1/12 page ad, then something would seriously be wrong. This is essentially what Google is doing, even more so now with their skewed "quality scoring" -- and no one seems to call them on it.
On the contrary, I find that Google are completely protected because the tool ESTIMATES traffic. An estimate is not the same as a fixed amount. You are right, there are many reasons the estimates could be "off". I would assume that your competitor's are editing their campaigns and bids, as you are. Therefore, the traffic estimator is analyzing your traffic based on current bids of your competitors. Five seconds later, maybe you were outbid, and lost your expected position.
At least for me, AdWords is an invaluable "guaranteed traffic" tool. I wouldn't have a business without it. AdWords is absolutely worth the time, effort and money for my business.
I agree! You really need to understand adwords, there are alot of factors that determine where your ad is going to be placed. The least understood is the "trust factor"...Google is not going to place a new ad above an established ad with all other factors being the same. The best way to explain it is if you were a landlord and had a really good tenant that pays $1500 a month, always on time, and he never causes you problems...and along comes a new tenant...and he offers you the same $1500 a month and wants you to kick the old tenant out...you are going to be like...heck no....and you may still say no at $1600 or $1700 or even more. Why? Because you know the tenant now is a good risk. Same applies with adwords. I have had keywords where I bid 50 cents and end up at position 30, BUT after a few days of good ctr, my ad starts to rise, and continues to rise...to where currently I hold position 2-4 for .43 cents now. This really seems sucky if you are the new advertiser. But, it is great, if you are the established "tenant". Hope that helps. Travis
The traffic estimator is based on historical data. Some keywords will have good history so the pricing will be fairly stable other words won't have much data so what traffic estimator says and what you achieve may be totally different. There are many factors that can determine positioning, so you will need to continually optimise for it.
My $0.02 I feel that that Adwords IS the PPC industry... SO if you say PPC, i automatically know that you mean Adwords, unless you say otherwsie. The point is... if you feel that Adwords is bad... then i ASSUME that the WHOLE PPC industry needs to re-construcion. May be converted from PPC to pay per action... Whoops... its an Adwords invention! Tim