Barack Obama Is The Democratic Nominee For President

Each one has their them has their own different set of weakness that help McCain.

 

How does losing Indiana make it a great performance? News flash but Obama will not be able to get the delegates needed to win the nomination, so the focus is forcing Hilliary out.

 

McCain is going to be destroyed by Obama, the polls should reflect this.

With the Ron Paul army growing on the republican side and dividing that party even more, there's no way McCain even has a chance.

 

You're not making sense. It's basic. If blacks comprise 12% of the voting populace, and Obama garners substantially more than 12% of the votes, folks beside blacks are voting for him. To say:

Is to say that as only blacks vote for Obama, and as blacks only comprise 12% of the population, Obama won't win in a general election, which isn't based in reality. Let's look at just the last two states:

North Carolina.

He won the state, 56% to 42%.

The state's demographic is: 75% white, 23% black, small portions of other races.

Indiana:

87.5% white, 8.4% black, small portions of other races.

He narrowly lost the state, 49% to 51%.

Can you do the math? Only blacks voting for him? You can "know how to think" all you'd like to; you can even create a private reality in your head, but the reality - you know, votes - show otherwise.

In fact, Obama has done quite well with many demographics, particularly college educated, white liberals, and has mobilized entirely new folds into the political process. This ability to inspire younger, newer voters is much like RP's campaign, to be honest, but Obama's young supporters actually go to the polls whereas RP's, for whatever reason, did not.

 

The difference is, Obama is running a cult of personality campaign. Short term, it will serve his needs. Long term, "change" as a buzzword isn't going to produce coherent and consistent efforts. Again, what Obama exactly stands for, is an unknown. His plans are well and good, but the country is broke, and needs a Receiver to step in on behalf of the people, not another salesman who wants to take everyone out to lunch and a round of golf.

Ideologically, the Paulies are further ahead. They have a movement that goes past Paul, even if he is the central figure. Already there are 4 or 5 Ron Paul Republicans that have won their primaries, and are running for Congress. The highest profile was just in NC, where BJ Lawson beat the other challenger, a warmonger Bush-ite Neocon for the party nomination.

BJ is the sort of young professional who can bring more than a desire for power to the table.

So while Obama had more young people vote for him, I doubt he can count on that support the way Paul can count on his smaller base.

@ whoever wrote that Paul would hurt McCain, you bet he would. The LP and CP basically promised Paul their nominations if he would run 3rd party. If he did so, the GOP would be sunk. As it is, the CP is already anti-McCain and it's doubtful the LP ha few who would cross over to him rather than Obama on utilitarian or pragmatic grounds.

 

Though I am not American and don't vote there.. IO would prefer Obama..

 

Basic math for those who don't have a clue.

There is a group of 50 people, 45 white and 5 black. Black are 10% of the group. Now we choose a smaller group of 6 people which has 4 black and 2 white. Are blacks still 10% of this group? NO, they are 67% of the group. The Obama won many of democratic primaries because of over representation of blacks among the voters in democratic party nomination. In many states he was in third place after Clinton and Edwards with only white people votes. Does this mean that whites will not vote at all for Obama? No, but the question is how many college educated, white liberals do you have in USA?

In presidential election about 50% of Americans vote, even those who are not involved in party politics and since I don't think you can find that many "college educated white liberals" among them, the chance of Obama winning the election based on blacks votes and this group is slim to none.

 

It seems you can't understand your ignorance, but one more time.

You originally claimed Obama can't win the general because blacks only comprise 12% of the voting populace. In other words, blacks voting for a black candidate, and the lack of blacks in higher percentages, is determinant.

I gave you but two examples where the black populace was substantially lower than 50% (23% and 8%, respectively), obviously, yet Obama won substantially higher numbers than the percentages of blacks voting. In other words, lots of white folks, among others, voted for the man. So many, in fact, he's taken the nomination. By your definition of race determinism, this is an impossibility. And therefore:

Is a laughably erroneous example. Does Obama have a task on his hands? Sure. Convincing white rural voters, industrial labor bloc voters, among others, he speaks for them as well as they feel Hillary would. But despite your tragically myopic worldview, race isn't the only factor in this contest, obviously. Add to this mix that the GOP really has a problem on its hands - the voter turnout for the Dem primaries has been huge, relative to the GOP nomination process. Unless something changes, if McCain doesn't drum up the same kind of fervor evinced by the Dem process, this is a McCain demographic elephant around his neck (pun intended). Your "thinking for yourself a clue" may work for you, but it doesn't apply in the real world, bub.

 

For a man who views himself as super intelligent, I must say you are sooooooo Dumb.

How many times do I need to explain for you that Democratic party primaries are very different because of the over presentation of blacks among voters than a general election.

Do you have to make a fool of yourself in every thread by first claiming your genius on all matters and than falling flat on your face?

 

I don't know how else to help you, Gworld. Whether primary, or general, Obama wins substantially more than black voters alone, which by your logic is an impossibility. He might have won 88% of the black voters in a given constituency, but if they represent 8-20% of the voting populace, and he wins, he is winning with the help of a helluva lot more than the 8-20% of blacks voting for him. But I understand you cannot understand this.

 

No, I don't believe what Limbaugh says, I was just posting it because I felt it was a significant addition to the conversation. In reality I don't favor Limbaugh, Obama or Clinton.

 

On the other hand, one could argue that if blacks came out in the numbers in 2000 and 2004 that they are likely to come out for Obama, Bush would never have been elected. The black vote could play a huge part if it's a tight election, which it probably will be.

 

He'll get the delegates needed to win the nomination by May 20th at the latest. The focus on Hillary getting out is because we're tired of her negative campaigning and folks that want the Democrats to win the White House in 2008 see her as a distraction at this point.

Great point. Sure the Dems always win the black vote in a landslide but the black turnout is usually not nearly as high as it could be. This year with Obama as the nominee there's a shot a very high black turnout. That could certainly make a huge difference.

 

True, but half blacks make up twice that and Obama is half.

Don't forget about the white mans guilt to.. Have to factor that in.

Anyway, congrats Obama...

 

It's a simple arithmetic. To Gworld's point:

If Obama gains more than 12% of the vote in the general, using his stat above, the theory that Obama's candidacy rests on the black vote, and would therefore necessarily fall, is a non-starter. I haven't seen any kind of projections, anywhere, that show Obama as being anything less than an approximately even match for McCain, with many, for many months now, showing him taking the presidency in a head-to-head with McCain. Hence, "hmm," in this poster's mind, as to Gworld's statement.

Jeremy, do you have a source somewhere establishing that mulattos make up 24% of the voting populace, or just a "hunch"?

 

The reality in America is that black votes, hollywood votes, elite votes and not even blue collar votes are enough to win. You need to get the Middle Class and up to really pull through. That and the inept seniors that vote like most of use took our SAT's, but inny, mini, miney, moe.

 

I would reiterate one troubling statistic for McCain: voter turnout for the Dem nomination, v. his nomination. I think much of the exit polls showing something like 1 out of 5 Clinton voters saying they'd vote McCain should Obama take the nomination is puffery. Come November, Dem voters will close ranks and support Obama, and these numbers alone, if present trends hold, will defeat McCain.

 

Anyone want to lay odds that the GOP gets some ballots somewhere "accidentally" printed with Barack Osama ?

There is no way the Karl Rove wing of the neocon party doesn't try this stunt. I think it will be in Florida.

 

What's the difference between middle class and up and the elite vote? I haven't listened to Rush in a while so I forget.

 

Yeah, cause as we all know, when the other side loses it is some mass conspiracy.
Isn't a bit early in the day to be drinking?