I posted this reply on another forum, but wanted to share it here as well: <forum member>, it's cool with me if you want to ignore what is happening. I can assure you that the MSM is not reporting the whole story. You have it wrong though... It's the supporters of the status quo candidates that are largely apathetic. RP supporters are mobilizing. Here is just a sampling (there is more out there for those who care to look): The Austin American-Statesman Paulites taking over the GOP? Alaskans may nominate fringe candidate On the results of the Tea Party: The 50 state strategy mentioned previously seems quite plausible (this article was printed before the Tea Party): Paul campaign balloons as cash keeps rolling in For those that are interested, RP will be on Glenn Beck for 1 hour tomorrow (the 18th) in prime time and on Meet the Press with Tim Russert this coming Sunday (23rd). The campaign is also going to run a 1/2 hour infomercial in Iowa over this coming weekend: Part I Part II ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ This is in response to a discussion about Ron Paul's chances for the GOP nomination. It's my contention that a lot of RP's support is "invisible" to the MSM and major polls. Have a look here. It outlines the biases inherent in many of the mainstream polls. For example, Rasmussen excludes anyone who doesn't have a voting history - ie. all the people being energized by the RP campaign to get involved in politics/elections for the first time are excluded from their sample. Ron Paul is going to do much, much better in Iowa, NH and SC than the MSM pundits are predicting. He isn't relying on a strong showing to maintain cash flow for his campaign (to carry through to later primaries) either. He has the type of support now to maintain a 50 state campaign while other candidates will have to drop out as the primaries/caucuses unfold because they don't have the funds or infrastructure of support necessary to continue. RP will be well represented on the GOP convention floor. I am optimistic that he will, in fact, win the day.
Bernard, you should throw these updates into the Ron Paul Campaign Updates thread. I'm sure Guerilla would love to catalog these and further updates together with his own. It's about 300 posts deep now, it covers the campaign back from a couple months ago to present.
Most of it was pulled from guerrilla's campaign thread, but I put it together in context like this, so one can start to see the bigger picture (sort of like one of those 3D magic eye things... lol).
Fair enough. Definitely some good updates. People have yet to realize that Paul is running an entirely different campaign, and they don't see the machinations at work for victory. The man has been in this game for 30 years beating incumbents on a regular basis, he knows how to find the dark horse win.
Austin is a hotbed of "liberalism" in Texas. This only confirms what I've been saying for quite some time now. The polls ARE accurate. It's the supporters that are not. RP has a huge following of "liberals/progressives." These are NOT republicans. As such, when pollsters call "the base" to gauge who they are voting for, it makes perfect sense that RP has little "republican" support. Now, if they were to call the liberal/progressive base, or the 9/11 troofer base, or stormfront members, etc, the polls would show considerably more support for RP. RP has massive support. It's just not the republican base that it comes from. Most recent poll for Texas that I have on file.
Paul is waking people up to the idea of libertarianism who never really though about it before. It doesn't need its own party, it can manifest itself in either party, although being a traditional Republican is about as close as you can get to it. It isn't liberals, it's people with liberal social values who don't want to give handouts to a section of our society who doesn't do anything, and who don't want their income sliced in half every year to fund pointless wars and government offices. It's also traditional Republicans, who believe in fiscal responsibility and limited government but can't make peace with the evangelicalism that has infested and uprooted the party towards neo-conservatism. It is a melting pot of ideas from both sides of the table, and it's why Paul will win.
fletch, I don't argue that, though I do believe most of his support comes from liberal/progressive/9/11 troofers/stormfront/anti-semites, etc. And this is why his poll numbers are low. They do not reflect representatives of the "real" party. It may not be something that a RP supporter wants to accept, but you've even noted yourself that you had "liberal leanings" before latching onto RP. If RP wants to see real polling results, absent "it's own party," they are not going to be reflective of his support when he's pulling in non-traditional voters. While it may be hard to accept, I do believe there is great reason to accept this premise. The "plus" side to it is, it would surely validate why poll after poll after poll consistently has him in the 5% range. An even greater "plus" side to this "theory" is, that when it comes time to vote in the primaries, it's *really* going to shock a lot of people. I could be wrong, but I suspect after seeing yet another huge financial success for RP this weekend, given the amount of money raised, that I'm not. This was truly an amazing fund raising. I don't care for RP at all, but I'm not above offering congratulations to you guys for a job well done!
Take them back to the democrat party where they belong, please! We don't want the kooks and cranks in our party. They belong with Hillary
I think the exciting thing here is to realize that only about 50% of Americans vote in the general election and far less than that in the primaries. Many of these Ron Paul supporters have never voted before or are young people who typically vote in small percentages. I really think the actual voting results are going to be far different than the polls. I will be quite surprised if Ron Paul doesn't surprise a lot of people with the results. If you really look at how the Iowa caucuses work... I really think it's possible Paul could win Iowa.
Most polls are canvassing only people who voted in 2004 primaries (when Bush ran as an incumbent and turnout was low) and only those who own landlines (most are not including people who use cell phones exclusively). I have read estimates that the sampling base is roughly 4% of the Republican party. The polls are not necessarily representing the "real" party - they mainly reflect (former?) diehard Bush supporters. Still, it's impressive that RP is climbing in polls with a predominantly neocon sampling base.
Hometown rag prints a story about the possible importance of Texas' primary in the GOP race and doesn't mention the hometown candidate at all. This quote, however, lends more credence to the 50 state strategy for Ron Paul: Is Texas' primary important? It depends
Whaaaa? The Austin MeetUp has 1,186 members. Houston has 404 and Dallas 358. I think San Antonio has a group over 100 as well. There are at least 25 MeetUps in Texas. That's at least 2,000 grass roots activists and supporters in the State. What an ignorant comment, from once again, a so-called "expert".
This is why it'd be such a big boost for Paul to finish in the top 3 in Iowa/NH... I think it would make him look like a much more viable possibility. Right now they are just looking at the polls that show Paul in the single digits. I think Paul has to prove that those polls are inaccurate before he gets the attention from MSM.
I have a question... What happens if Ron Paul does not Win the primaries? Who would be the back-up? What would be the next best bet?
IMO, there is no "next best bet". I think that is why his base of support is so dedicated/fanatical/deep/strong/<insert favorite adjective>. Andrew Sullivan, author of The Conservative Soul said it really well: Ron Paul For The Republican Nomination
There is no "next best bet" who 1) Has enough money or grassroots support to compete 2) Has any position in the polls 3) Has any chance of winning a general election
The question would be better worded as: What happens when Ron Paul doe not Win the primaries? 1) Alex Jones will start recovering from the loss of donations he normally gets. 2) Young angry white males from all parts will create conspiracy videos to cash in on the "suckers" willing to give money to them for doing so. 3) Conspiracy web sites will crop up a dime a dozen about how the Jews prevented RP from getting the nomination, and other delusional sorts. It's going to be a fun, fun, fun time!